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MANIFOLD
September 2026 AI model releases
109
Ṁ2kṀ19k
Sep 30
98%
Muse Spark 1.3 (or any Meta model)
96%
Grok 4.x (or any Grok/Composer model)
86%
GPT-6
85%
Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)
82%
Claude Opus 5.x
79%
Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)
73%
Any Mistral Model
63%
Claude Sonnet 5.x
54%
Any model developed by fal Research
54%
Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)
45%
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite
27%
Claude Haiku 5.x
25%
GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)
25%
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro
23%
DeepSeek V4.x (or any DeepSeek model)
23%
TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)
9%
Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model
3%
GPT-5.7
Resolved
YES
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash
Resolved
YES
Claude Fable 5.x

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.


Notes:

  • For the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market.

Previous Months:

/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases

Market context
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Why is the slug august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q lmfao @prismatic

@JasonMendoza2008 Forgot to rename it until after creation ☠

@prismatic if they skip to 6, would this resolve NO

@realTomBayes yeah bc there is an option for gpt 6 listed

i want to bet on the qwen 4 release, anyone interested?

What do you count as a SSI model?

@Storyteller Kind of uncertain considering they haven't released anything but probably anything they release

@prismatic Would a SSI model be able to complete the main storyline for most games?

@Storyteller wdym thats not in scope for this market

I think you set the resolution date wrong

@bumin thanks fixed