MANIFOLD
April 2026 AI model releases
13
Ṁ1.7kṀ2.2k
Apr 30
74%
Minimax M3 (or any Minimax model)
73%
Gemini 3.1 Flash
73%
GPT-5.5 (or 5.x variant)
73%
DeepSeek V4 (or any variant)
70%
Kimi K3 (or any Kimi model)
61%
Claude Haiku 4.6 (or 4.x variant)
50%
Gemini 3.1 Pro (any new variant)
36%
Claude Sonnet 4.7 (or 4.x variant)
30%
Gemma 4
30%
Claude Opus 4.7 (or 4.x variant)
28%
Claude Sonnet 5
24%
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (any new variant)
20%
Grok 5 (or any Grok model)
18%
Meta Avocado (or any Meta model)
18%
Claude Opus 5
16%
GPT-6
10%
DeepSeek V3.3 (or 3.x variant)

Last month: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during April 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me.

  • Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For DeepSeek V4, both V4-Lite and V4 Full (and any other V4 variants) count toward resolution.

  • Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Haiku 4.6 has been added as a tracked model for this market.

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bought Ṁ1 YES

@prismatic Could Haiku 4.6 be added?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@MaxLennartson done

@prismatic Does this include V4-Lite or just V4 Full?

@PlasmaPower any V4 variant so lite or full both count

@PlasmaPower clarification in criteria and in option name have been added.

bought Ṁ90 NO

PING ME if you would like any model to be added.

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