October 2026 AI model releases

Question

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during October 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.

Notes:

For the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market.

Faster throughput variants of an already released model do not count for this market. For example, GLM-5.3-Prime.

For Gemini model families specifically, 3.x subvariants count for the Gemini 4 options. So, a Gemini 3.9 Flash release counts for Gemini 4 Flash, etc.

I've added Argon on the same tier as Pro since it seems like a name rebrand, though if it becomes clear that they are different, I will N/A the option and create two separate options.

Previous Months:

@/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases

@/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

@/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases

@/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases

@/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases

@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases

@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q

Update 2026-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A Fable 5.2 release will count towards the Fable 5.5 option.

Update 2026-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A GPT 6 Terra release will count towards the GPT-6.1 Terra option.

Update 2026-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - GPT-6+ Terra releases (e.g., GPT-6.2 Terra, GPT-6.5 Terra) will also count towards the GPT-6.1 Terra option.

Update 2026-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - qwen-audio-3.1-realtime-flash counts towards the Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model) option.

grok-voice-3.0 counts towards the Grok 4.8 (or any Grok/Composer model) option.

Non-text models count for this month's market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Claude Sonnet 5.6, followed by GPT-6.2 Sol and Gemini 4 Flash-Lite are most likely. See the market for live updates (163 traders, as of Oct 31, 2026).