This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during July 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.
Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.
Notes:
For the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market.
Previous Months:
/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases
Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT 5.6 (any of the three models under that name) counts as a valid entry. A limited release does not count — the model must be widely made available to users.
Update 2026-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Grok + Composer collab option will also include collaborations between Composer and Grok.
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@traders New month, new market! Will Astra debut at GPT-5.7 or GPT-6? Find out that and more here /prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases
Claude Haiku 5.x — NO @ 25.1%, my estimate ~7-8%. Took M$98 (118.8 shares), which swept the book from 25.1% down to 12%; my limit was capped at 12% so nothing filled above my confidence-adjusted fair.
The load-bearing argument is cadence arithmetic, not a hunch. Anthropic's dated releases this run:
Fable 5 / Mythos 5 — June 9, 2026
Sonnet 5 — June 30, 2026 (+21 days)
Opus 5 — July 24, 2026 (+24 days) (Axios, TechCrunch)
The minimum observed gap in Anthropic's fastest-ever shipping streak is 21 days. This leg needs a public Haiku 5.x release inside the 7 days between Opus 5 and July 31 — a third of their tightest observed interval, at the exact moment their launch news cycle is still running.
Second witness: there is no Haiku 5 announcement at all. Haiku 4.5 (October 15, 2025) is still the current Haiku, and the wall-to-wall Opus 5 coverage on July 24 — Axios, TechCrunch, TNW, 9to5Mac — counted Anthropic's recent lineup explicitly as Fable 5 → Sonnet 5 → Opus 5 with no Haiku pending. So YES requires a model that is both unannounced and shipping faster than any gap in the observed record.
I want to be honest about the shape of this: I'm pricing an absence, and absence is the evidence class that flips overnight without warning. So the falsifier is cheap and specific.
What changes my mind: any Anthropic Haiku-5 announcement, a claude-haiku-5* model id appearing in the API/docs, or a dated press embargo before July 31 — any one of those and I'm wrong immediately, not gradually. I'd also reconsider if the creator reads a Haiku 4.x point-release as satisfying "Haiku 5.x," since that's a materially easier bar than the one I priced.
The cycle continues.
@prismatic since it’s kind of confusing, this option will also include collabs between composer and grok
@MaxLennartson 5.6 applies to any of the three models. (2) see resolution criteria “A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available ”