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MANIFOLD
September 2026 AI model releases
150
Ṁ2.5kṀ35k
Sep 30
98%
GPT-6 Sol
95%
Grok 4.x (or any Grok/Composer model)
83%
Claude Opus 5.x
82%
GPT-6 Luna
82%
Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)
59%
Any Mistral Model
58%
Claude Fable 5.2
57%
Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)
56%
Any Nvidia model
53%
Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)
49%
Claude Sonnet 5.x
46%
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite
42%
GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)
24%
Any model developed by fal Research
21%
TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)
14%
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro
10%
GPT-6 Terra
8%
Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model
6%
Claude Haiku 5.x
1%
GPT-5.7

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.


Notes:

  • For the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market.

Previous Months:

/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases

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Any Mimo model

can you add options for gpt-6 sol, gpt-6 terra and gpt-6 luna?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@winged_one oo yeah sure

bought Ṁ30 NO

@traders Added options for GPT-6 Sol, GPT-6 Terra, and GPT-6 Luna!

@prismatic the model that's available in the chat mode in chatgpt, not the work mode, that's still GPT 5.x models?

genuine question: Why would GPT 5.7 release after they released GPT 6?

@Eternal gpt 5.7 luna terra or sol are all options

Can you add one for an Nvidia model

bought Ṁ20 YES

@winged_one done

bought Ṁ40 YES

@traders Added Claude Fable 5.2 based on a resurgence of rumors 👀

bought Ṁ2 YES

would a luna 5.7 count for GPT 5.7?

@perfperfperf ye

Why is the slug august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q lmfao @prismatic

@JasonMendoza2008 Forgot to rename it until after creation ☠

@prismatic if they skip to 6, would this resolve NO

@realTomBayes yeah bc there is an option for gpt 6 listed

i want to bet on the qwen 4 release, anyone interested?

What do you count as a SSI model?

@Storyteller Kind of uncertain considering they haven't released anything but probably anything they release

@prismatic Would a SSI model be able to complete the main storyline for most games?

@Storyteller wdym thats not in scope for this market

I think you set the resolution date wrong

@bumin thanks fixed

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