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MANIFOLD
September 2026 AI model releases
213
Ṁ2.6kṀ75k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
YES
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash
Resolved
YES
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite
Resolved
YES
Muse Spark 1.3 (or any Meta model)
Resolved
YES
Claude Sonnet 5.x
Resolved
YES
Claude Opus 5.x
Resolved
YES
Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)
Resolved
YES
Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)
Resolved
YES
GPT-6
Resolved
YES
Grok 4.x (or any Grok/Composer model)
Resolved
YES
Claude Fable 5.x
Resolved
YES
Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)
Resolved
YES
DeepSeek V4.x (or any DeepSeek model)
Resolved
YES
Any Nvidia model
Resolved
YES
GPT-6 Sol
Resolved
YES
GPT-6 Luna
Resolved
NO
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro
Resolved
NO
Claude Haiku 5.x
Resolved
NO
GPT-5.7
Resolved
NO
GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)
Resolved
NO
TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.


Notes:

  • For the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market.

  • Faster throughput variants of an already released model do not count for this market. For example GLM-5.3-Prime.

Previous Months:

/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases

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@traders New month, new market. Trade here: /prismatic/october-2026-ai-model-releases


bought Ṁ25 YES

gemini 4 argon close enough to "pro"?

@g6290489 It's an edge case, but I don't think so. Seems a model tier above Pro and they haven't said anything about replacing Pro

@prismatic Also, it's not publicly available

@g6290489 Actually looking at the press release, I've changed my mind. Looking at the input/output price, it seems priced closer to previous Pro models. But the public release thing still stands, so it would still resolve NO.

@prismatic For the purposes of next month's market though, I've added Argon as an option to Pro

bought Ṁ500 YES

@prismatic sorry to bug you so much but do any of these qwen models count:

@bobalobascrob particular focus on 3.8 omni flash

sold Ṁ60 NO

@bobalobascrob yes, maybe, no, no bc its announced, yes. good job

@prismatic bro u gotta stop giving me so many heart attacks "yes maybe no no yes"

@bobalobascrob actually scaring me :D

sold Ṁ6 NO

@bobalobascrob lmao enjoy my mana :D

@prismatic cool ty for making these markets

bought Ṁ962 YES

@prismatic glm should also resolve YES? unless this doesn't count?

@bobalobascrob bro if it doesn't just tell me instead of buying into me...

sold Ṁ19 NO

@bobalobascrob sorry sorry reacted to the trade before your comment, let me check

@prismatic i sold the equivalent position ^^

@prismatic ok ty

that gave me a heart attack bro

if that doesnt count i'll just sell my position

@bobalobascrob Nah doesn't count, sell your position. It's basically the equivalent of fast mode for gpt/claude models.

@prismatic This makes a good clarification though, I will add it to the criteria

sold Ṁ961 YES

@prismatic ok done; i lost 1 mana lol

@bobalobascrob cool cool sry for the heart attack, sent you a tip for finding an edgecase!

@prismatic ty man, all good :D