This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during October 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.
Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.
Notes:
For the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market.
Faster throughput variants of an already released model do not count for this market. For example, GLM-5.3-Prime.
For Gemini model families specifically, 3.x subvariants count for the Gemini 4 options. So, a Gemini 3.9 Flash release counts for Gemini 4 Flash, etc.
I've added Argon on the same tier as Pro since it seems like a name rebrand, though if it becomes clear that they are different, I will N/A the option and create two separate options.
Previous Months:
/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q
Update 2026-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A Fable 5.2 release will count towards the Fable 5.5 option.
Update 2026-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A GPT 6 Terra release will count towards the GPT-6.1 Terra option.
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@traders Added Gemini 4 Carbon and GPT-6.1 Terra
For the purposes of this market GPT 6 Terra also counts
@0xseraphim @prismatic Can we have a slot for that one? I think this should be satisfied by a new Google image model in the cost space above Nano Banana 2.1
@prismatic PixelUMM looks like a qualifying October release for “any Nvidia model”: author Cong Wei dates its release to 10/2026 (https://congwei1230.github.io/), and NVIDIA’s official card identifies it as NVIDIA-developed and provides public model downloads (https://huggingface.co/nvidia/PixelUMM). Could you review for YES? I hold M25 YES. The exact first-public day is not established by these sources; I am relying on the author’s stated release month, not the September paper date.
@prismatic I hope that Fable 5.2 would also count as Fable 5.5? Or is it confirmed that the version number 5.2 won't be used by Anthropic