Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."
Request your candidate in comments.
1,000
3.00@Riley12 Fixed odds US Elections betting is designed to get the all the suckers. The odds are designed to invoke deep emotional response, so that the bookie can take all your money. Unlike prediction markets, you're betting against the house not the against other traders.
Anyways, enough of preaching :) If we get enough interest in Michelle Obama, we'll add.
@predyx_markets I'm confused by what procedure would lead you to add Mr. Beast but not Michelle Obama
@predyx_markets You're correct. The only problem though is that explains maybe 5% of a bookies price. The bookies job is to give you the best price on a line that you'll actually play. It would make no sense for them to make Obama look more likely than she is as people wouldn't bet it. And actually prediction markets are more susceptible to the emotional prices you describe. A bookie is willing to take an unbalanced book to give you a line near where they think is true probability + vig while prediction markets have to move with the total handle causing the line to drift away from true probability when the sharps are already maxed out on that position.
Also, Betfair is a betting exchange that works the exact same as a prediction market :) hope this helps!
@predyx_markets When has decorum stopped anybody?
I worry itโs possible this restriction could be relaxed before 2028 somehow
@predyx_markets Winning a swing state senate seat in a state your party's presidential candidate lost seems like the sort of thing that gets you mooted as a candidate. It shows you might be able to turn things around next cycle. I don't see any references in the news to a presidential run from him yet, but it's early. Makes sense to me to add him to the market.
@predyx_markets Elissa Slotkin, Tammy Baldwin, and Jacky Rosen won senate seats as Democrats in swing states.