Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."
Request your candidate in comments.
@predyx_markets underrated. If Harris wins in 2024 he seems both >40% to be the candidate and >60% to win if he is, which gives us 12% already. If Trump wins in 2024 he's almost certainly the candidate in 2028 and probably has at least 40% to win.
@ShakedKoplewitz I don't know if I agree that he's 40% to be the candidate if Trump loses now but you make good points. See also this market