Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially nominated by the Republican Party for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, as confirmed by the party's official announcement or at the Republican National Convention. If no candidate is nominated, it will resolve to "No."
big question is whether Trump will stick by this
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-wont-run-again-loses-november-election-rcna172147
@JessicaEvans If we get enough request and polularity for Tucker, we'll add him. Meanwhile if you want to bet on Tucker, we have an option for him in another related market.
@predyx_markets surely very undervalued.
P(Trump wins) * P(Vance 2028 | trump win)
45% * 80%+
= 36%
Plus vance is a strong candidate imo.
@polymathematic Nothing is stopping us from taking profits in the short term. If you strongly believe in a candidate, you can always buy low and sell high. ๐๐ก
@Daniel_MC love that you brought some math, but 80% is too high IMO. Historically, maybe the vice prez gets the nomination that often (I didn't check), but Trump has a history of throwing absolutely everyone who has ever worked for him under the bus, eventually.
@Daniel_MC I don't think P(Vance 2028 | trump win) is nearly as high as 80%. He's also an incredibly weak candidate, though, given the current state of the GOP, I doubt that affects his chances of getting nominated.