Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a *PRISON* Cell? (Not a *jail* cell)
Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a *PRISON* Cell? (Not a *jail* cell)
20
1kṀ12992047
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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This market resolves YES if Donald Trump ever spends 1 full night locked in a prison cell.
Note this is about Trump ever spending even one night in PRISON anytime in the rest of his life.
For definitions, I'm going with Merriam-Webster here:
PRISON: “a place of confinement especially for lawbreakers”
JAIL: “a place of confinement for persons held in lawful custody”
A "full night" is defined as the time period between 10:00 PM and 6:00 AM, in whatever local jursidiction he's in.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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