Will Donald Trump be executed by the end of 2029?
Basic
41
12k
2030
5%
chance

Resolves YES if Trump is sentenced to death by any country or state and executed by the same.

A legal process must be involved, so drone strikes/assassinations don't count.

If a free (in my judgement) press exists and news media across the political spectrum deems it an execution (or not), I will likely resolve accordingly.

I will not bet in this market.

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Does this resolve YES if AI wipes out humanity after holding a trial concluding that various individuals are guilty, including Trump?

@DavidBolin In that case I will probably leave the resolution to said AI

every time i see this question in my portfolio it makes me laugh

Andrew GboughtṀ50YES

For anyone wondering why the market was briefly so high

predicts YES

How does the question resolve if a nuclear power tries Trump in absentia, finds him guilty, and executes him (with substantial immediate collateral damage) by ICBM or rod-from-god?

bought Ṁ10 YES from 1.8% to 4%

@Lorxus He'd have to be extradited or kidnapped and killed following a trial by legal authorities there. But extraterritorial jurisdiction over non-nationals wouldn't count.

How does the question resolve if a coup occurs and the revolutionaries - not (yet?) legitimized, with no strong functioning legal system yet beyond maybe courts-martial, execute Trump themselves?

Basically, how would the question resolve if Trump were the Romanovs in newly Sovietted Russia?

@Lorxus He’d have to be charged with a specific crime, so I wouldn’t count this

bought Ṁ10 NO at 1.8%
predicts YES

@derikk charged with being "an enemy of the state and its people" wouldn't suffice?

@Lorxus For the purposes of this market I won't count ex post facto laws/bills of attainder

predicts YES

@derikk ...ok. that still doesn't fully answer my question. could be lots of people getting tried and executed for that!

@Lorxus if the evidence for his being an "enemy of the people" is his actions before the coup, the execution wouldn't be counted. It would have to be for crimes that were punishable by the death penalty at the time they were committed.

How is this question so high?

LOL