Will there be a war between the US and Iran before January 2026?
14
100Ṁ541
2026
13%
chance
5

Clarification:

Pay attention to the requirement that each side must sustain 1000+ military fatalities. This measure excludes civilians.

Resolution Criteria:

  • This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, etc) report a military conflict involving both the US and Iran resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.

  • Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).

  • This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2026.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.

!!!

@DontGoHome That is how scholars of international relations define a war.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Yaqubali I wasn't complaining, just thought it was surprising given that my 100 death market is trading much lower

@DontGoHome I suspect people just read the question without reading the resolution criteria which is very important to read.

@DontGoHome I suspect the same problem of not reading the resolution criteria impacts this question.
https://manifold.markets/Yaqubali/will-there-be-a-war-between-the-isr?r=WWFxdWJhbGk

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