Resolution Criteria: Specify what constitutes "engaging in a war." For example:
This market resolves to "YES" if the United States is officially declared to be in a state of war with another country by an act of Congress or if there is clear and widely-acknowledged evidence of sustained military conflict involving U.S. forces on foreign soil (excluding minor skirmishes or peacekeeping missions) by January 1, 2026.
Clarifications:
Define "sustained military conflict" (e.g., conflicts lasting over 30 days or involving over 1,000 U.S. personnel).
Exclude drone strikes, cyberattacks, or covert operations unless they lead to broader conflict.
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@questionyourself A drone strike isn't 'war' for the same reason a single punch isn't a boxing match. War requires sustained commitment and resource allocation. If we count every drone strike, the US is perpetually 'at war' globally, making the question meaningless. The 30-day threshold creates a clear, game-resistant Schelling point for resolution.