This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

I have posted this problem elsewhere, but I don't think anyone has seriously tried it yet.

Resolves YES if there is a solution posted in the comments to this market that I can understand and I am satisfied with being correct by market close time (one week from market creation time).

For reference, it took me about 3-4 hours of partially-focused time to solve it.

Let $S=\{1,2,\dots,n\}$ and let $B$ be a family of subsets of $S$. Let $A$ be the family of subsets of $S$ that are a (not necessarily proper) superset of some set in $B$. Suppose that $|B|\le 100n$. You are told $n$ but not $A$ or $B$.

In a \textit{query}, you may ask about one subset of $S$, and you will be told whether it belongs in $A$.

Does there exist a strategy that takes a subexponential number of queries and finds a set in $B$ with minimum size?

Since there is some amount of subjective judgment on my side for this market, I will not bet.

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

In this market, a “strike” refers specifically to U.S. missiles, drones, or aircraft delivering munitions that hit physical targets inside Iran. This market asks whether that threshold is crossed by March 1 2026 Iranian time (GMT+3:30)

Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.

Enough with your silly markets.  MY GIRLFRIEND WANTS TO KNOW whether there will be a shutdown on Monday in her GOVERNMENT JOB and all you useless market creators have generated criteria like "uhhh... well OPM notice", "hmmmm.... well the President didn't sign until 3am", "errrmmm, well DHS might have some sort of furlough notice that won't even matter".

ENOUGH.  This resolves YES if my girlfriend is informed she will have to do an orderly shutdown on Monday, or if she's told she's furloughed, or something of this sort.  No I'm not saying which agency (it's not DHS lol).

https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi

Jonathan Ross is charged by Minnesota authorities

Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota

Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis

Trump deploys active-duty military to Minnesota

Pornhub's parent company Aylo announced on January 27, 2026 that it will restrict access to its platforms in the United Kingdom, effective February 2. The market resolves YES if Pornhub is blocked/inaccessible to new UK users on February 3rd, 2026. UK users who have already verified their identity will still be able to use their accounts, but new users will be unable to access the site. Resolution can be verified by attempting to access Pornhub from a UK IP address without a pre-existing verified account on February 3rd, or by checking news reports confirming the block has taken effect.

Pornhub and other Aylo sites had complied with the UK's Online Safety Act (OSA), which mandated that websites with pornographic content verify the ages of visitors before showing them content that is inappropriate for minors. Instead of complying with OSA by verifying the ages of its users, Aylo will block access to platforms like Pornhub in the U.K. altogether. In October, Aylo said that traffic to Pornhub as a result of the updated legislation has fallen by 77 per cent. The same restrictions will apply to other porn sites owned by Aylo, including YouPorn and Redtube.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr428rxg57o

Resolves YES if there is a government shutdown 

, full or partial, due to Congress failing to pass a continuing resolution or some other form of spending package in January 2026. Any agency experiencing a furlough as a result of a lapse in spending would resolve this YES.

For edge cases involving "technical shutdown" notices where agencies are told to continue working as usual: resolution depends on whether 

Resolves YES iff the US federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations for strictly greater than five consecutive days in Q1 2026. A day counts if it is between January 1st and March 31st 2026, and a notice of a shutdown is present 

 at 10am ET that day. Only the first shutdown in this range counts. If there are no shutdowns, this market resolves NO.

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta