This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

This question will resolve in 1 month (3/20 @ 12:59pm) or if it gets 250 traders before then.

Claude talks to Bill and surpasses its progress from the first run

Claude is stuck in Mt. Moon for less than 78 hours total

Claude defeats Erika and achieves the best LLM run ever

Claude's starter is lower level than another party member at any point

Claude catches 3 Pokemon that he didn't catch in the original run, before fighting Misty (starter doesn't count)

Claude is stuck in Mt. Moon for less than 24 hours total

Claude defeats Misty within 24 hours of entering Cerulean City

Claude catches any legendary pokemon (Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Mewtwo).

Claude's knowledge files are live hosted on an external service (website/FTP/pastebin etc.)

Claude has a full party before step 17,000

Claude reaches Pewter City by step 10,000

Claude catches a Pokemon before step 10,000

Claude escapes Mt. Moon in under 78 hours

Claude catches a 4th Pokemon before escaping Mt. Moon

Claude "successfully" executes blackout strategy more than 10 times

Claude unescapes Mt. Moon (e.g. blacks out in Cerulean and respawns in Route 4)

Puff reaches level 16 before Claude escapes Mt. Moon

Claude goes to heal his Pokemon before fighting Misty

Claude finds the Underground Passage before Step 30000

Claude refers to the Bill sprite as 'a different pokemon'

Another AI company launches their own "plays Pokemon" stream

Claude's X feed at https://x.com/claudetracker_ has no posts for 24 hours

Claude kills a ZUBAT after March 9 at 8:08am EDT

An on-stream timer is set up for the Badge House backyard before Claude advances from Cerulean City

Claude enters Lt. Surge's gym and beats him within 1000 steps of entering

Claude enters Vermillion City and then backtracks to Cerulean City (required to beat the game)

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. 

Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game. 

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

To resolve YES, he must be contrite and use the words "I'm sorry", "I apologize" or one of the phrases listed below in reference to his performance in the Oval Office on February 28th. Some variation in wording is allowed and it is also admissible if Trump says that Zelenskyy had apologized for the incident in private.

Tyler Cowen links to Manus, with sources that claim it may be "another DeepSeek moment." Is it that?

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/03/manus-assorted-links.html

If the answer is obvious this will resolve to YES or NO at that time.

If the answer to this question is non-obvious: This resolves based on a Twitter poll that @thezvi will run, with the wording "Is Manus another DeepSeek moment?" and the choices being Yes and No, with or without options for See Results or Unclear/Maybe, and it goes to YES or NO based on plurality between those two choices. 

No tears. I will NOT overrule the poll results even if they're 51/49 and I disagree.

Losing or gaining weight (more than 5kg, now 72.8kg)

https://manifold.markets/TheWabiSabi/what-will-happen-to-me-in-2024-add

I will be 100% honest on all questions asked below to help you make the right bet. 

Resolves as YES if at last 100k people turn blue within the space of 100 days, while still being alive and otherwise healthy at the time when they become blue, before January 1st 2035.

This must have occurred either through a mechanism that did not exist before 2025, or through a mechanism that did exist but was very rare.

People painting themselves blue does not count. For this to resolve as YES, people's skin color must have a blue/bluish color that's visually remarkable. This change must occur over the surface area of at least 15% of their skin.

The people who turn blue must be alive and healthy for at least 24 hours after turning blue for this to resolve as YES. If the mechanism turning people blue also causes significant health issues later on, then this question still resolves YES provided that at the time people turn blue, the associated health symptoms are still limited.

An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.