This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

Note: Drum-beating propaganda or symbolic actions will not resolve the question to "yes".

The creator states they will resolve based on the 

 and that traders will not be caught on a technicality.

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

I will resolve according to publicly available information and my best judgment.

Will be resolved at end of 2025 at the latest. 

The platform uses text to vector embeddings (semantic similarity) to retrieve markets. Explains why probability shifts occurred (daily, weekly, monthly and yearly) by showing in the feed small summaries of all recent comments for individual markets. You can also create your own areas you'd like to track and explore public ones created by other users.

I use it every day to get an accurate idea of where the world is heading or find markets to trade in areas I care about.

The number of daily active users will be measured by the average of the last 3 days of June.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.newstag.twa

This market will resolve to the candidate who secures the Democratic nomination for the New York City mayoral election in 2025. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Democratic Party or the New York City Board of Elections. If no candidate receives the nomination, the market will resolve as N/A.

The 2025 New York City mayoral race has attracted several prominent Democratic candidates:

As of early 2025, polls indicate that Cuomo holds a significant lead among Democratic voters, with Stringer and Lander trailing behind. (

The Democratic primary is expected to be highly competitive, with candidates representing a range of political ideologies from moderate to progressive. Voter sentiments on issues such as public safety, housing affordability, and economic recovery will likely influence the outcome. Additionally, the use of ranked-choice voting in the primary may impact the dynamics of the race.

 During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch what is called unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers inside the car.

 This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision inside the car. The market will resolve NO if:

The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts.

Waymo can take remote control but they are considered by the media as a robotaxi service.

Apollo Go in China, Cruise are considered robotaxi services.

The standard is no human driver in the car and a paid service.

Others can debate their definitions but other questions can be created.

on June 13 (local time in Iran), Israel struck multiple sites in Tehran. the Israeli government and IDF have released statements to say these attacks were preliminary, and that they intend to continue striking targets related to Iran's nuclear program and their military. 

will a statement from Trump (video, audio, or social media post from his official account) directly attribute the escalation to Biden?

only resolves yes if Trump mentions Biden by name and makes a statement either that something Biden did (or didn't do), or that he himself is the reason the escalation occurred. the statement doesn't need to be specifically about the actions on June 13th but can be about any subsequent escalation or military actions taken by either country against the other. only statements made after the June 13th strikes will count, and only statements directly from Trump - I will not resolve to mentions in articles (either "a source/s" or a person by name, claiming Trump blamed Biden behind closed doors). 

since this may be a nuanced resolution, I will not bet in this market. please provide proof for resolution.

This market will resolve to the date when Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $110,000 USD. The price will be determined based on the daily closing price reported by reputable financial data sources such as 

. If Bitcoin's price does not reach $110,000 by the market's end date, the market will resolve as "N/A."

Resolves YES if at the end of July, to my judgment, the consensus of reporting indicates that it is more likely than not that the Iranian nuclear site of Fordow has been put out of commission, through air strikes, sabotage, etc.

https://open.substack.com/pub/peterwildeford/p/the-fordow-paradox-where-do-iran?r=19iisj&utm_medium=ios

and reporting from mainstream media such as Axios:

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/14/iran-nuclear-facilities-fordow-israel-strike

🇬🇪 N. Basilashvili v. 🇰🇿 M. Kukushkin [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇫🇷 H. Mayot v. 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Bellucci v. 🇫🇷 L. Pouille [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic v. 🇧🇪 D. Goffin (6) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇫🇷 A. Mannarino v. 🇫🇷 R. Gasquet [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇳🇱 J. De Jong v. 🇫🇷 Q. Halys (WC) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (1) v. 🇺🇸 C. Eubanks [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik (4) v. 🇩🇪 D. Koepfer [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇨🇳 B. Yunchaokete (8) v. 🇫🇷 C. Lestienne [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇫🇷 A. Cazaux v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇬🇪 N. Basilashvili (Q) v. 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech (7) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor (5) v. 🇫🇷 R. Gasquet [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇮🇹 M. Bellucci v. 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇳🇱 J. de Jong v. 🇮🇹 F. Cobolli (3) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇨🇳 Y. Bu (8) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (1) v. 🇬🇪 N. Basilashvili (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik (4) v. 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor (5) v. 🇳🇱 J. de Jong [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (1) v. 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Semifinals]

🇳🇱 J. de Jong v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Semifinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 L. Sonego v. 🇩🇰 H. Rune (5) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (4) v. 🇨🇳 Z. Zhang [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇨🇿 J. Lehecka v. 🇦🇺 A. Popyrin [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 F. Cobolli v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic v. 🇫🇷 G. Mpetshi Perricard [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik v. 🇨🇿 J. Mensik [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇧🇪 D. Goffin v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Berrettini v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka (WC) v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (2) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Final]

🇺🇸 T. Fritz (1) v. 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇷🇸 M. Kecmanovic v. 🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇯🇵 K. Nishikori v. 🇨🇿 T. Machac (6) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) v. 🇺🇸 J. Brooksby [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 R. Opelka v. 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇬🇧 C. Norrie v. 🇺🇸 A. Michelsen (7) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi (8) v. 🇺🇸 C. Eubanks (Q) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇨🇳 Y. Bu [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇦🇺 A. Vukic v. 🇺🇸 B. Shelton (4) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (5) v. 🇯🇵 T. Daniel [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇮🇹 A. Vavassori (Q) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 P. Martinez v. 🇩🇰 H. Rune (5) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (4) v. 🇭🇺 F. Marozsan [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇨🇿 J. Lehecka v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇫🇷 A. Fils (7) v. 🇩🇪 D. Altmaier [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇨🇿 J. Mensik v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (6) v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇮🇹 M. Bellucci (Q) v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (2) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 T. Fritz (1) v. 🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇺 R. Hijikata v. 🇨🇿 T. Machac (6) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) v. 🇺🇸 E. Quinn (Q) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 R. Opelka v. 🇬🇧 C. Norrie [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi (8) v. 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇺🇸 B. Shelton (4) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (5) v. 🇯🇵 Y. Nishioka [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 M. Mmoh (Q) v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (4) v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇩🇪 D. Altmaier (LL) v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (6) v. 🇮🇹 M. Bellucci (Q) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇪🇸 P. Martinez [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov v. 🇨🇿 T. Machac (6) [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) v. 🇺🇸 R. Opelka [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi (8) v. 🇪🇸 J. Munar [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇯🇵 Y. Nishioka v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) v. 🇮🇹 M. Bellucci (Q) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov v. 🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) [Dallas ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Final]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Final]

🇩🇪 J. Struff v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (3) v. 🇮🇹 M. Berrettini [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (6) v. 🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic (SE) [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇫🇷 Q. Halys (Q) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇧🇪 Z. Bergs v. 🇪🇸 R. Bautista Agut [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 K. Khachanov v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (4) [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (5) v. 🇰🇿 A. Bublik [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp (Q) v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (2) [Doha ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇮🇹 L. Nardi (Q) [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇭🇺 F. Marozsan v. 🇨🇿 J. Lehecka [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇧🇷 J. Fonseca (SE) v. 🇫🇷 A. Muller [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇩🇪 A. Zverev (1) v. 🇨🇳 Y. Bu [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Berrettini v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇺 C. O'Connell (Q) v. 🇬🇧 J. Draper (8) [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇧🇪 Z. Bergs v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (4) [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (5) v. 🇵🇹 N. Borges [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇩🇪 A. Zverev (1) v. 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 F. Comesana v. 🇨🇱 N. Jarry (6) [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo (4) v. 🇮🇹 L. Darderi [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇫🇷 A. Muller v. 🇦🇷 T. Etcheverry (8) [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 S. Baez (5) v. 🇦🇷 M. Navone [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇧🇷 T. Monteiro v. 🇹🇼 C. Tseng [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 C. Ugo Carabelli v. 🇧🇦 D. Dzumhur [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇵🇹 J. Faria [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic (SE) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime [Doha ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs. 🇨🇿 J. Lehecka [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇮🇹 M. Berrettini vs. 🇬🇧 J. Draper (8) [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime vs. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (4) [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (5) vs. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (2) [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

Predict the outcome of men's tennis match play at events throughout the 2025 ATP season. 

Each match that begins will resolve YES if the 

 advances to the next round, either by win or walkover. The match will resolve NO if the SECOND player listed advances (again either by win or walkover). A match will resolve N/A if it does not take place (that is, if a player withdraws before the match begins). Seeded players are listed with their seed.

Will resolve YES if Alcaraz, seeded first, advances by win or walkover. Will resolve NO if Nardi advances instead.

Will try to leave some limit orders up prior to the match start time for the day, but then will close betting until the match is completed.