This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire

If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or its widely recognized equivalent certifies any individual's net worth at or above $2.0 Trillion (USD) at any point before July 1, 2030, will the Metaculus community consensus probability for a 'Generation Starship launch by 2150' close above 1.0% on July 31, 2030?

Resolves Yes if Trump finishes his second term. Resolves No if Trump doesn't serve a full second term for any reason.

resolves yes if anthropic announces having solved the Navier Stokes millenium prize problem (even if they dont yet have the official confirmation of the prize) before their IPO

If they solve a weaker variant like under some weakening assumptions, that doesn't count.

Make a trade on all available options and let me know in the comments for 10 mana!

Hints will be given every 3 unique traders. I will resolve the market when all 3 animals have probability >=99%, and extend the market if necessary.

Have fun! I won’t trade on this market. 

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

With the upcoming Nintendo Direct on September 8th, 2026, Nintendo may announce the development of a new Super Smash Bros game for the Nintendo Switch 2 console. Historically, there has been a new Smash Bros game for every mainline Nintendo console since the first Smash game for the Nintendo 64.

🇫🇷 Q. Halys vs 🇨🇱 A. Tabilo [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇸🇪 E. Ymer vs 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇵🇹 N. Borges vs 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (7) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇷 M. Navone vs 🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (11) vs 🇳🇱 J. de Jong [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (19) vs 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi vs 🇷🇺 A. Rublev (13) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇭🇺 F. Marozsán vs 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech (24) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇳🇴 N. Budkov Kjær vs 🇺🇸 R. Opelka [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇳 J. Shang vs 🇪🇸 R. Bautista Agut [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇹 F. Misolic vs 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina (14) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 B. Nakashima (27) vs 🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇩🇪 D. Altmaier vs 🇭🇷 M. Čilić [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇷 J. M. Cerúndolo vs 🇦🇺 J. Thompson [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇷🇸 L. Djere vs 🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) vs 🇺🇸 M. Giron [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇷 T. A. Tirante vs 🇦🇺 A. Vukić [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇵🇱 K. Majchrzak vs 🇬🇧 J. Fearnley [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 M. McDonald vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇫🇷 A. Mannarino vs 🇦🇺 R. Hijikata [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇿 J. Lehečka (17) vs 🇫🇷 A. Gea [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov (21) vs 🇨🇳 Y. Bu [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇪🇸 J. Munar vs 🇨🇿 D. Švrčina [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇫🇷 T. Atmane vs 🇮🇹 F. Maestrelli [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 M. Damm Jr. vs 🇲🇨 V. Vacherot (30) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇺 A. Popyrin vs 🇫🇷 A. Muller [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇪🇸 P. Martinez vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Bellucci vs 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (12) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇫🇷 H. Gaston vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇮🇹 L. Sonego vs 🇪🇸 C. Taberner [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇱 C. Garin vs 🇮🇹 L. Darderi (22) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇧🇪 R. Collignon [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇷🇺 K. Khachanov (15) vs 🇺🇸 A. Michelsen [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇺 C. O’Connell vs 🇺🇸 N. Basavareddy [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇧🇷 J. Fonseca (28) vs 🇺🇸 E. Spizzirri [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 E. Quinn vs 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor (23) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇫🇷 G. Mpetshi Perricard vs 🇦🇷 S. Báez [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇺 D. Sweeny vs 🇫🇷 G. Monfils [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇿 J. Menšík (16) vs 🇪🇸 P. Carreño Busta [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇮🇹 L. Nardi vs 🇨🇳 Y. Wu [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 B. Shelton (8) vs 🇫🇷 U. Humbert [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇺 J. Duckworth vs 🇭🇷 D. Prizmić [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇯🇵 R. Sakamoto vs 🇪🇸 R. Jodar [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz vs 🇧🇪 Z. Bergs [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇿 V. Kopriva vs 🇩🇪 J-L. Struff [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇺 C. O'Connell vs 🇺🇸 N. Basavareddy [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇫🇷 G. Mpetshi Perricard vs 🇦🇷 S. Baez [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇿 J. Mensik (16) vs 🇪🇸 P. Carreno Busta [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇺 J. Duckworth vs 🇭🇷 D. Prizmic [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇨🇿 V. Kopriva vs 🇩🇪 J. Struff [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇫🇷 V. Royer vs 🇺🇸 T. Fritz (9) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇧🇬 G. Dimitrov vs 🇨🇿 T. Machac [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇯🇵 S. Mochizuki vs 🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (31) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇺🇸 R. Opelka vs 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina (14) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik (10) vs 🇭🇺 M. Fucsovics [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇵🇹 J. Faria vs 🇷🇺 A. Rublev (13) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇦🇷 T. Etcheverry vs 🇬🇧 A. Fery [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇺🇸 E. Nava vs 🇬🇧 C. Norrie (26) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇩🇪 Y. Hanfmann [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇺🇸 M. Zheng vs 🇫🇷 C. Moutet (32) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo (18) vs 🇧🇦 D. Dzumhur [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (11) vs 🇫🇷 Q. Halys [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (29) vs 🇦🇷 F. Comesana [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇵🇱 K. Majchrzak vs 🇭🇺 F. Marozsan [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (19) vs 🇦🇷 T. Tirante [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇦🇺 J. Thompson vs 🇵🇹 N. Borges [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) vs 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇩🇪 A. Zverev (3) vs 🇫🇷 A. Muller [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇺🇸 B. Shelton (8) vs 🇦🇺 D. Sweeny [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇪🇸 J. Munar vs 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (12) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇮🇹 F. Maestrelli vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇨🇿 J. Mensik (16) vs 🇪🇸 R. Jodar [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇹🇷 Z. Sonmez vs 🇭🇺 A. Bondár [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇦🇺 T. Gibson vs 🇷🇺 D. Shnaider (23) [Australian Open – Round 1]

🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇮🇹 L. Sonego [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇨🇿 T. Machac vs 🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (31) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇫🇷 A. Gea (Q) vs 🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka (WC) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇨🇿 V. Kopriva vs 🇺🇸 T. Fritz (9) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz vs 🇺🇸 E. Quinn [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp vs 🇨🇳 J. Shang [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇦🇺 R. Hijikata (WC) vs 🇲🇨 V. Vacherot (30) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov (21) vs 🇭🇷 M. Čilić [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇷🇺 K. Khachanov (15) vs 🇺🇸 N. Basavareddy (Q) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇦🇷 S. Báez vs 🇮🇹 L. Darderi (22) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇺🇸 E. Spizzirri vs 🇨🇳 Y. Wu (Q) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇦🇺 J. Duckworth (WC) vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Round 2]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇫🇷 C. Moutet (32) [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (19) vs 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina (14) [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik (10) vs 🇦🇷 T. Etcheverry [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (29) vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇩🇪 A. Zverev (3) vs 🇬🇧 C. Norrie (26) [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇦🇷 F. Cerúndolo (18) vs 🇷🇺 A. Rublev (13) [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (11) vs 🇭🇺 F. Marozsán [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) vs 🇵🇹 N. Borges [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇨🇿 T. Machac [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka (WC) vs 🇺🇸 T. Fritz (9) [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇨🇿 J. Mensik (16) vs 🇺🇸 E. Quinn [Australian Open – Round 3]

🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Round 3]

Predict the outcome of men's tennis match play at events throughout the 2026 ATP season.

Each match that begins will resolve YES if the 

 advances to the next round, either by win or walkover. The match will resolve NO if the SECOND player listed advances (again either by win or walkover). A match will resolve N/A if it does not take place (that is, if a player withdraws before the match begins).

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇮🇹 L. Nardi [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

Will resolve YES if Alcaraz, seeded first, advances by win or walkover. Will resolve NO if Nardi advances instead.

Won't always have these descriptions, but if they occur, here's what they mean:

(LL) — Lucky Loser (lost in qualifying, but made the main draw by another player's withdrawal)

(WC) — Wild Card (gained main draw entry at the discretion of the tournament director)

Will try to leave some limit orders up prior to the match start time for the day, but then will typically close betting until the matches are completed.

I've submitted my PhD thesis on modelling Transformers/LLMs as approximations of Solomonoff Induction, now I need a job. Lots of AI safety orgs offer a bonus for anyone referring a successful candidate - one place I've applied to offers $5,000. Refer me, claim the money 

Resolves YES if I accept a paid full-time position (not necessarily permanent) from someone referring me. The referrer isn't required to claim a referral bonus, but hey, why not try? (I've already applied to a few places, so you might not be able to claim them there; if you want to know if I've already applied somewhere, DM me)

Resolves NO if I don't accept a position or the offer was made without a referral.

: Nathan "N.C." Young (seems worth restating that I am not 

: Auckland, New Zealand. UK/NZ dual citizen, so able to relocate to and work in the UK without a visa. Willing to move elsewhere as well or work remotely

: Submitted PhD thesis (currently under examination) on modelling Transformers/LLMs as approximations of Solomonoff Induction. Developed new formulation called Hierarchical Solomonoff Induction, replicated 

 to examine how well Transformers approximate Bayesian induction at training and test time separately.

: Theory-first AI safety research scientist, developing a theoretical understanding of how AI works/should be expected to develop, supported with empirical observations/experiments.

Specific interest in unbounded models like Solomonoff Induction and AIXI, and algorithmic information theory in general. I got a tattoo of the AIXI definition last weekend, put it that way.

Hierarchical Solomonoff Induction: An Unbounded Machine Learning Model

: no current commitments, could start remotely immediately or overseas within a month or so

Abstract page for arXiv paper 2608.01005: Hierarchical Solomonoff Induction: An Unbounded Machine Learning Model

Tracks the Democratic percentage in VoteHub’s published time-weighted 2026 generic-ballot polling average. This is the percentage choosing Democratic—not the Democratic-minus-Republican margin, a two-party-normalized share, a forecast, or the election result. 

Manifold checks VoteHub every 5 minutes and updates the oracle whenever VoteHub’s value changes. Historical chart points come from VoteHub’s published daily series. 

If no sufficiently fresh and valid value can be published for 30 hours, trading pauses. 

After November 3, 2026, this market will be manually settled at the latest accepted VoteHub Democratic-share value. 

It does not settle based on the election result. 

https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026

Which female player will win the singles title in 2026?