This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

This year, 2025 gemini got a 35, a gold medal, but will it ever get a 42 (on IMO 2026)???

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of July 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be https://companiesmarketcap.com

I have a Hinge profile set up but I haven't started using it yet. I think my profile looks reasonably good but my photos look somewhat staged since I took them specifically for the profile. My profile is currently self-selecting pretty hard towards serious relationships, which will probably reduce the number of matches I get. I may purchase a Hinge subscription. If I do, I'll provide an update when I purchase it.

The seven-day period begins when I first send a like on Hinge and lasts exactly 168 hours. I'll post the exact start and end times and provide daily updates.

This is a commitment device market regarding the total amount of hours I will study from July 1 through July 31 2026. I'm studying law part-time. The exam period begins in August.

all questions right & all points received.

As much allotted real-time as humans, parallel reasoning allowed

Lean4 or other theorem proving software allowed

Natural language proofs and formal proofs allowed

The model completing the task must be open-weight, but the scaffold it makes use of need not be open-source.

Note: the open-weight model must be released before the IMO 2026 to count.

This market will resolve to the second largest company in the world by market cap at the end of July 2026, as of market close.

Deploy satellites by end of February 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/3 March 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/4 April 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/5 May 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/3 March 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/4 April 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/5 May 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/06 June 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/07 July 2025

Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06 June 2025

Reuse a booster by end of 2025/09 September 2025

Reuse a booster by end of 2025/12 December 2025

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

Reach orbit by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025

Reach orbit by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/08 i.e. August 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2025/12 i.e.  Dec 2025

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/06 i.e.June 2027

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/11 i.e.Nov 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/01 i.e.Jan 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/04 i.e. April 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

02 Deploy satellites to full orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/09 i.e.Sep 2027

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

Reach orbit means full circumnavigation around Earth.

Recover starship means mainly intact and no large deformation. Things that might possibly be repairable like missing tiles and/or hole in flap and/or flap torn off is acceptable.

Refuel a booster must be at least 50% of amount of propellants intended to be transferred. Also must be more than 1000 Kg of mass in case they do a very small scale test.

Catch booster on different tower means different from Pad A at Boca Chica used for the first catch. Pad B at Boca Chica is perhaps most advanced and most likely but it could be a different location. Note it does not have to be a different tower from which it launched.

Mass simulators to suborbital do not count as satellites.

Satellites must be deployed to orbit and be functional items but functional as a test item is OK.

Edit 26 July 2026: orbit in above means they must complete at least a full orbit.

Dynamic ranking of models on how well they orchestrate tools for real-world agentic tasks, based on signals like tool reliability, task completion, and steerability.