This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2025 Polish presidential election.

This market's closing date and time, currently 8:00 UTC, 1 June 2025, may be pushed back if needed to ensure that it can stay open until the results are clear.

If no presidential election is held in Poland in 2025, this market shall resolve to "No one".

Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

At least 5 people simultaneously chant "rationalussy"

At least four meetup regulars from my local rationalist group attend (including me)

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

@jskf sings a song (full song, on stage) at the karaoke event

The conference's events average 15 minutes or more behind schedule, as judged by @Joshua

According to a poll asking if they enjoyed the conference with YES/NO/No opinion, a plurality of Manifold users respond YES

At least 350 people buy a ticket to attend at least one event in-person

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Arm-Wrestling tournament with at least 8 participants 

There is a scheduled orgy on every day of the conference 

Someone gives away 100+ folded paper cranes that have a message inside

3 people kiss each other at once who have not kissed each other before

>5 people interrupt a talk by standing up and singing at least 30 seconds of "Do You Hear the People Sing?"

During their talk, a speaker eats a spoonful of yogurt

During their talk, a speaker drinks from a Capri Sun

During their talk, a speaker mentions the quality of the Lighthaven bidets

Freestyle rap battle with at least 3 participants about who has the bigger ballpit at their house

At least 10 men wear black lipstick for >1 hour

A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial

At least 5 markets involving single chess matches played at Manifest

Someone goes all in with 27o in the poker tournament

Someone proposes with a ring (should be legit between a couple that were already together but not yet engaged)

Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023

At least 20 people mention these prop bets to me in person 

Tumbles somehow gets a major financial bailout 

Conditional on Krantz making it to the conference, he will give a presentation that lowers Yud's pdoom to below 10%.

Someone is convinced to transition (their gender) 

Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference

Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana) 

Someone eats more than 6000 calories in one day

Conditional on Aella taking a survey created by Krantz (less than 500 true/false questions), she will gift Krantz $100k dollars.

Krantz is convinced to radically change his approach to AI alignment advocacy 

Conditional on someone finally setting up a passable ball pit, someone urinates in it

Someone audibly meows while giving a presentation on a subject unrelated to cats

Someone makes another "Will I get rationalussy" market in complete sincerity and it resolves to YES

XMR is exchanged for goods and/or services

Someone verifiably has >=50k PnL on a real-money prediction market

Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead

 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social.  You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

Resolves YES if and only if the high price on any one-minute candle in Binance’s BTC-USDT market equals or exceeds $115,000.00 USDT after market creation and on or before May 31st, 11:59pm ET. 

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be 

 asking people to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar. Traders are encouraged to submit their own guesses via the link. 

Outcome will be verified via media produced by Veritasium. If this information is not made public before January 1, 2030, then all market answers resolve N/A. 

The Market Creator has no relation to Veritasium nor has knowledge of the correct answer at time of market creation. Market Creator may trade on this market after 1 week of operation or after 10 unique traders have traded, whichever happens first. Market Creator cannot trade between knowing the correct answer and resolving the market. 

Resolves to the rider who wins the overall general classification (Maglia Rosa) at the end of the Giro.

Currently, I have mana held up in 37 unresolved markets. I have been trying to get the mods to resolve some of them, with mixed results. 

Resolves YES if, at any time before June 1st 2025, I have mana in fewer than 10 unresolved markets. Otherwise, resolves NO at closure. 

At the conclusion of the final match of the UEFA Champions League, including regular time, and if applicable, extra time and a penalty shoot-out, will Paris Saint-Germain beat Inter Milan?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds 

The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the 

. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from 

 may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.

• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (00:00 AM - 23:59 PM PT) on 

• If Bitcoin exceeds $107,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.

• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.