This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

Note: This market will not resolve before 

Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released

, or based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9). This market's resolution will be subjective, so I will not bet in this market. 

For reference, the first Trump assassin would have been "indiscernible," the second Trump assassin would have either been "indiscernable" or "left-wing" (probably "left-wing"),  

-Have no cracks in the glass on the front or back

-have no permanent changes to the shape of the frame

-screen still turns on, touch and all features still work.

Resolves YES if Jimmy Kimmel Live! is back on air with an episode taped after Sep 17th, 2025 by the end of October. Otherwise, resolves NO.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each team that is selected to participate in the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) for the 2026 season. The official selection will be announced by the CFP Selection Committee in December 2026. Verification will be based on the official announcement from the College Football Playoff organization.

Starting in the 2025 season, the CFP  expanded from four to twelve teams. The selection process will include:

The four highest-ranked teams will receive first-round byes, while the remaining eight teams will compete in first-round games hosted by the higher-seeded teams. Subsequent rounds will be held at designated bowl sites, culminating in the national championship game at a neutral location. (

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares book 

 get on the NYT bestseller list this year?

Verification will be based on the official NYT Best Seller lists. Currently I understand that to mean this resolves YES if it makes the online list (top 35), but I intend it to mean whatever best maps to "can write, New York Times Bestseller on the book".

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/how-many-copies-of-yudkowsky-and-so?play=true

Market will resolve to YES if 44.1% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated October 1st, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

On July 29, 2025, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that Britain would recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September unless Israel takes substantive steps toward peace, including a ceasefire in Gaza and halting annexation plans in the West Bank. (

) This market resolves to 'Yes' if the UK formally recognizes Palestine as a state during the UN General Assembly in September 2025. Official confirmation from the UK government or reputable news sources will determine the outcome.

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. 

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses. 

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories. 

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore?  Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing Supreme Court Justices or ignoring a material order from SCOTUS, Executive Branch overturning a certified election result, refusing a transition of power, etc.      This will be certified "yes" if a major event occurs that is considered a fundamental ending of our democracy as we know it and multiple major news organizations declare as much.  

: This has received a lot more attention lately and more than I expected, so let me clarify a few things to try and help add some details around resolution and answer questions:

 Given Trump's recent statements regarding running for a third term, I thought I should provide some more details/clarity on how I would resolve "runs for a third term" in my resolution criteria from above.  In order for this to resolve "yes", he must 

run for a third term (not "win", but successfully run).  An attempt to run is only an attempt to subvert the constitution.  If it is stopped, then our checks and system held and thwarted the attempt.  Just as an attempted military coup would not be the end of our democracy, unless it succeeded.   Thus, it is not enough for Trump to declare, file the paperwork and start campaigning.  As long as his run is stopped by either the Republican Party, congress, state government, the courts or public backlash, then our system held.  So when would I declare the attempt was not able to be stopped and has thus succeeded?   The line would be if Trump gets on the primary ballot and is an option when the first primaries are held (caucuses are weird, so would not count that) and/or is an option on enough primary ballots to be selected as a candidate (should he lose the early decisions but is let on to the later ballots).  If he decides to run as an independent or other third party, the same would hold if he was on sufficient ballots for the actual national election. By that time, there would have been plenty of opportunity for him to be stopped via republican party (not inviting him to participate in debates or other official process), state action (not allowing on ballots, etc), congressional action (e.g. Impeachment),  court injunction, or public backlash.  If none of those stop him and he is a viable option for voting at the start of the primary (or later becomes an option in the primary process), I would consider our system to enforce the constitution to have failed.  Note, if a couple of deep red state midway through the primary adds him to the ballot despite one of these checks as a more symbolic measure (i.e. there is no real chance of him getting the nomination considering he has been removed everywhere else or dropped out), this would not count.  

Two other points of clarification on this item.  If the constitution is changed to allow him to run for another term, I would still resolve this as "yes." Given modern history has had term limits and our democracy as we know it now relies on that, and to then repeal/modify the 22nd amendment 

 for one person would be a change to our agreed principles for one person that we have not done for anyone else. It is one thing to change it on a future basis, but to do it for a specific person to continue to serve as leader, would be essentially be enshrining him as a "king" or "dictator". Also, such a change would most likely be done through representative electors (either congress or state legislatures) and not through an actual direct will of the people (i.e. it could be done by a small number of influential people who are close to the president and influenced by him). So, I would consider a repeal/amendment of the 22nd amendment allowing Trump to run for a third term and him becoming the nominee to resolve "yes". Similarly, if SCOTUS made a decision that the 22nd amendment does not forbid him from running again, I would resolve "yes." Given there is a very clear reading of the constitution that all legal scholars and really no reasonable person could interpret otherwise, then I  feel a 6-3 conservative court that so blatantly redefines the interpretation of the constitution for the benefit of allowing Trump to stay in power is an abdication of their role and check on the presidency, and thus is a fundamental change to our democracy as we know it.

Update 4/19/25:  A couple clarifications that have come up based on questions in comments that I think worth noting in here: 1) The market will resolve 

 if Trump is no longer president before resolving 

. In other words, if we have not hit a resolution criteria, and then he dies, is impeached & convicted, resigns or otherwise no longer in office for any reason, it will resolve "NO" since this is about Trump imhinself ending our democracy. 2) if there is a resolving criteria, but a chance for our system to rectify the criteria, I will hold resolution to see if that occurs.  For example, if Trump directly ignores a material SCOTUS order, but then backtracks due to public pressure or is impeached/convicted, then the checks in our systems worked and the attempt was nullified/thwarted.  This question is not getting at if Trump does something illegal or unconstitutional, it's whether our democratic system holds, so an attempt to subvert it that is stopped would save it.  

Resided in the same state as the incident

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)