This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

Iran says they will open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours

Nothing happens - strait stays closed, no power plant attacks

Widespread damage to Iran's critical infrastructure by the end of March.

Widespread damage to Gulf critical infrastructure by the end of March.

Widespread damage to Israel's critical infrastructure by the end of March.

Busehr power plant suffers critical damage

S&P500 and Dow Jones both close down on Monday from Fridays Close

VIX (Volatility Index) closes at or above $30.00 on Monday? (Friday Closed 26.78)

A US-flagged oil tanker successfully travels through the Strait of Hormuz

Iran closes and restricts usage of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. either makes a deal or decides to pull back.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

A ceasefire resolves YES if the United States and Iran agree to and implement a formal ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2026. The agreement must involve both parties publicly acknowledging the ceasefire and demonstrating compliance through cessation of military operations. Resolution will be determined by official statements from both governments or credible international mediators (such as Oman's Foreign Ministry). If no formal ceasefire agreement is reached or announced by March 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted military strikes on Iran, marking a major escalation. A previous ceasefire was declared on June 24, 2025, which has since held. Iran agreed during indirect talks with the United States never to stockpile enriched uranium, and Oman's Foreign Minister stated that all issues in a deal could be resolved "amicably and comprehensively" within a few months. However, talks remain deadlocked over fundamental issues including enrichment levels, sanctions relief and the dismantling of parts of Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

U.S. partners Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have publicly said the United States cannot use their territory to attack Iran, and the United Kingdom blocked U.S. use of UK airbases for any pre-emptive attack. This constrains military options and may increase pressure for diplomatic resolution. Additionally, the US and Iranian sides are expected to meet again in Vienna for more indirect negotiations, suggesting ongoing diplomatic channels despite recent military escalation.

Results YES iff One Nation is elected to 4 seats or more in South Australia's 2026 election according to the ABC:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/results

Results are currently being counted, will give it a few days to resolve. If ABC goes down, resolution source is Australian Electoral Commission or Wikipedia.

"invade" means US military attempts to seize territory in Iran.

By themselves, airstrikes, a no-fly zone, and naval engagements do not count. An operation in which US military personnel are physically in Iran, but whose aim is not to seize territory (e.g. covert/clandestine operation), would also not count.

Resolves YES if the US invades Iran with ground troops this year.

On February 28, the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school for girls in Iran was hit by a missile, killing at least 175 Iranians, most of them grade-school children. This market resolves YES if Trump makes a public statement that constitutes an apology for U.S. responsibility for the bombing before this market closes. An apology must include acknowledgment of U.S. responsibility and expression of regret or remorse. The statement can be made via press conference, social media, official statement, or other public communication.

Preliminary findings from a military investigation indicate that the U.S. is responsible for the deadly missile strike, with blame assigned to "outdated data" on the target provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency. Trump told reporters, without citing evidence, that he believes the deadly strike on a girls' primary school in southern Iran last weekend was "done by Iran." A reporter questioned Trump on why he is the only person in his government claiming that Iran bombed its own school, as other officials have not made such statements. Trump has been giving contradicting answers about the incident over the past week—in early instances, he blamed Iran for the bombing, but more recently, he has claimed that he does not know the details of the strike.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted Trump "is not making anything up," and that he is making statements as a "feeling based on fact," and added that Trump would accept the findings of the Pentagon's investigation. However, Trump has not yet acknowledged U.S. responsibility despite the preliminary military findings, instead maintaining ambiguity about the incident.

Resolves YES if the US national average retail gas price (regular unleaded) exceeds $4.00/gallon at any point during March 2026, per AAA or EIA data.

 US/Israeli strikes on Iran began February 28, 2026. Iran has attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures are elevated.

As of late February 2026, US average gas was approximately $3.20-3.40/gallon.

December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT)

 is no longer the governing regime of Iran.

This includes scenarios in which the regime is 

overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern

 replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:

broad consensus among credible international media

—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has 

lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran

 A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve 

, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.