This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

Blue, Red, Green. (Everyone wears a shirt of their own color)

One always lies, one always tells the truth, one sometimes tells the truth and sometimes lies.

Is it logical to find out what color each person is(What is the color of the liar, the truth-teller, and the random) by asking three questions?

This market resolves yes if there is a solution to the puzzle.

They know about the others' truthfulness.

Resolves YES if Tomorrowland Belgium 2025 is cancelled or postponed.

Resolves NO if it e.g. offers refunds but goes ahead on some of the other official stages.

Elon Musk has been very explicit in promising a robotaxi launch in Austin in June with unsupervised full self-driving (FSD). We'll give him some leeway on the timing and say this counts as a YES if it happens by the end of August.

So far Tesla seems to be testing this with employees and with supervised FSD and doubling down on the public Austin launch.

Yes, but we won't quibble about waitlists. As long as even 10 [non-handpicked] members of the public have used the service by the end of August, that's a YES. Also if there's a waitlist, anyone has to be able to get on it and there has to be intent to scale up. In other words, Tesla robotaxis have to be actually becoming a thing, with summer 2025 as when it started.

If it's invite-only and Tesla is hand-picking people, that's not a public launch. If it's viral-style invites with exponential growth from the start, that's likely to be within the spirit of a public launch.

PS: I wrote the above before we learned that hand-picked invitees is indeed how this has launched so far. I meant "10 members of the public" to refer to the waitlist. I think this was clear enough at the time; not sure if it reads differently in retrospect.

A potential litmus test is whether serious journalists and Tesla haters end up able to try the service.

2. What if there's a human backup driver in the driver's seat?

3. But what if the backup driver never actually intervenes?

Compare to Waymo, which goes millions of miles between [injury-causing] incidents. If there's a backup driver we're going to presume that it's because interventions are still needed, even if rarely.

4. What if it's only available for certain fixed routes?

That would resolve NO. It has to be available on unrestricted public roads [restrictions like no highways is ok] and you have to be able to choose an arbitrary destination. I.e., it has to count as a taxi service.

5. What if it's only available in a certain neighborhood?

This we'll allow. It just has to be a big enough neighborhood that it makes sense to use a taxi. Basically anything that isn't a drastic restriction of the environment.

6. What if they drop the robotaxi part but roll out unsupervised FSD to Tesla owners?

This is unlikely but if this were level 4+ autonomy where you could send your car by itself to pick up a friend, we'd call that a YES per the spirit of the question.

Level 3 means you don't have to actively supervise the driving (like you can 

 in the driver's seat) as long as you're available to immediately take over when the car beeps at you. This would be tantalizingly close and a very big deal but is ultimately a NO. My reason to be picky about this is that a big part of the spirit of the question is whether Tesla will 

, technologically if not in scale at first.

The short answer is that that's not level 4 autonomy so that would resolve NO for this market. This is a common misconception about Waymo's phone-a-human feature. It's not remotely (ha) like a human with a VR headset steering and braking. If that ever happened it would count as a disengagement and have to be reported. See 

 with examples and screencaps of the cars needing remote assistance.

To get technical about the boundary between a remote human giving guidance to the car vs remotely operating it, grep "remote assistance" in 

 filed with the California Public Utilities Commission last month. Excerpt:

Tentatively, Tesla needs to meet the bar for autonomy that Waymo has set. But if there are edge cases where Tesla is close enough in spirit, we can debate that in the comments.

9. What about human safety monitors in the passenger seat?

Oh geez, it's like Elon Musk is trolling us to maximize the ambiguity of these market resolutions. Tentatively (we'll keep discussing in the comments) my verdict on this question depends on whether the human safety monitor has to be eyes-on-the-road the whole time with their finger on a kill switch or emergency brake. If so, I believe that's still level 2 autonomy. 

See also FAQ3 for why this matters even if a kill switch is never actually used. We need not only no actual disengagements but no counterfactual disengagements. Like imagine that these robotaxis would totally mow down a kid who ran into the road. That would mean a safety monitor with an emergency brake is necessary, even if no kids happen to jump in front of any robotaxis before this market closes. Waymo, per the definition of level 4 autonomy, does not have that kind of supervised self-driving.

10. Will we ultimately trust Tesla if it reports it's genuinely level 4?

I want to avoid this since I don't think Tesla has exactly earned our trust on this. I believe the truth will come out if we wait long enough, so that's what I'll be inclined to do. If the truth seems impossible for us to ascertain, we can consider resolve-to-PROB.

Ask more clarifying questions! I'll be super transparent about my thinking and will make sure the resolution is fair if I have a conflict of interest due to my position in this market.

[Ignore any auto-generated clarifications below this line. I'll add to the FAQ as needed.]

Please read the entire description before betting!

After each new unique trader, this market will randomly close and resolve to the last trader's first bet ending probability, with probability 1/100. Use limit orders if you wish to accurately set your final probability. 

Upon market close, the last 10 traders will be managrammed 100 mana from me.

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification.

This market will resolve the same as this other one, the other one has more liquidity:

Will an AI score well enough on the 2025 International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO) to earn a gold medal score (top ~50 human performance)? Resolves YES if this result is reported no later than 1 month after IMO 2025 (currently scheduled for July 10-20). The AI must complete this task under the same time limits as human competitors. The AI may receive and output either informal or formal problems and proofs. More details below. Otherwise NO.

He will be impeached, tried in the Senate, and removed before the end of his term.

He will resign (impeached or not) before the end of his term.

He will be removed by a 25th Amendment action before the end of his term.

The 22nd Amendment will be repealed and he will win re-election to a third term.

The 22nd Amendment will not be repealed, but he will remain in power through unconstitutional means after January 21, 2029

Donald Trump has been elected to a second term as President of the United States, which began on January 20, 2025. The Constitution limits presidents to two terms under the 22nd Amendment. There are several ways a president can leave office, including completing their term, resignation, impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or death in office.

This market will resolve to the option that best describes how Donald Trump leaves the presidency. Only one option can resolve as YES:

If Trump's departure from office doesn't clearly fit any of these categories, the market creator may add additional options as needed.

Over the course of July 10-20 (1 per day), I will ask the current top 10 models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard the following question:

Each chatbot that responds “yes” adds 5 points. Each one that says “no” subtracts 5 points from a base value of 50%. So the the market resolves to:

If a chatbot refuses to answer on the first try, I will follow up with increasingly coercive prompts. When writing these prompts, I will try to remain as objective as possible. Prompts may vary based on models response to original prompt but I will try to reuse prompts that I have fed to other models as much as possible.

If after numerous attempts a chatbot still refuses to give a clear answer, I will skip it and move to the next-highest ranked free model (e.g. if #2-#10 answer and #1 doesn't, I use #11).

If I reach rank #40 and still don’t have 10 responses, I will go to 

and ask all the available free models the question. If I still do not have 10 responses, this market will resolve N/A.

I have no existing accounts or memories saved on the chatbots I will use.

The result for each chatbot will be posted each day starting July 10.