This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES. However, 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 would resolve this market to NO.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

Ride in a car for >10 hrs in the same day

Consume 4+ psychoactive drugs across the trip (cumulatively)

Consume 3+ psychoactive drugs within the same day

Encounter snow (either through active precipitation OR being close enough to touch or walk on it; not merely seeing it on distant mountains)

Forget something at home or lose something along the way

Offer food or beverage to a stranger (or newly met acquaintance)

Consume food or beverage offered by a stranger (or newly met acquaintance)

Enter a dilapidated abandoned building / structure

See a plane land or takeoff on the Chicken Strip (the dirt airstrip @ SV)

Eat/drink at the Mountain Rambler Brewery

Dial 911 (or someone in immediate vicinity dials 911, or someone dials 911 on your behalf)

My partner and I are going on a big road trip from April 4-12(ish). We both enjoy long drives, camping, and hot springs and all of these are core activities for this trip. 

The plan is to take two days to drive through central Oregon, Lassen NF, and Reno before meeting up with friends in Mammoth Lakes. From there, our group will caravan out to Saline Valley (just west/northwest of Death Valley), where we'll camp, soak in hot springs, and explore the area for a few days. We'll then caravan to Benton hot springs (~35 miles north of Bishop), where we'll soak and camp for another two nights. Finally, we'll leave our friends behind and head back north to return home. 

Please add things we might experience or encounter during our adventure!

 (Or, if you prefer, comment with a suggestion and I'll add it for you.)

- Our route might not adhere exactly to the map above, but it will probably be similar.

- We're only rendezvousing with our friends in Mammoth. The plan is to spend a night there but not ski or stick around any longer than necessary.

- We've both previously been to the Eastern Sierra region together multiple times (it's a favorite area! 🤠). However, this will be my partner's first time to Saline Valley. 

- My friend is bringing her two young children (ages 3 & 6, I think), which will likely curtail the use of psychoactives and other "adult" activities, at least compared to previous desert trips.

- The "road" into Saline Valley is long, mostly washboard dirt or sand w/ many sharp rocks, inconsistently maintained, and notoriously treacherous. I think it's about 60 miles each way. My partner gets wicked motion sickness and I'm apprehensive about how she'll handle the drive in & out.

- I think our group will have a total of 3 dirt bikes and 2 high-clearance 4WD vehicles for Saline Valley. (We plan to ride in our friend's truck and leave our own vehicle parked somewhere in the eastern Sierra for this portion of the trip.)

- I'll be in-and-out of cell service during the trip. I'll try to keep this updated and post relevant photos as I'm able.

- I may bet on this market in the direction I think is most likely and won't change my bet at a late stage. I may adjust bets as time goes on, though, to reflect what seems realistic. 

- I'll resolve answers n/a at my discretion, but count on it for junk or spam answers including really easy Yeses (yes, I plan to wake up each day), or really easy Nos (no, I won't try to ride a wild burro), or absurd/impossible ones (no, we're not going to take a burro home).

At the time of market creation, I placed several bets to move probabilities toward my own expectations for the trip. I may place additional bets until leaving on this trip. Out of consideration for fairness, once my trip begins I will not make any new bets or sell off any shares.

The Chicken Strip (Saline Valley's dirt airstrip):

An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

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Resolution can be expected within 24 hours after closing

 fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip (outcome is final).

 produce multiple responses to the queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.

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If none of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to Yes. If any of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to no. Copied from the Polymarket and should resolve the same in >99% of circumstances. 

https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-before-may

-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire (announcement suffices)

-Yoon Suk Yeol is reinstated as President of South Korea

-Pete Hegseth resigns or otherwise ceases to be Secretary of Defense

-Erdoğan resigns or otherwise ceases to be President of Turkey

-Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal (announcement suffices)

For the sake of this market, a ceasefire must pertain to all theaters of fighting between the two parties.

This market resolves YES if Nintendo officially announces an increase to the recommended US retail price (let's say due to US tariffs) of the Nintendo Switch 2 above the currently announced $449.99 before its launch on June 5th, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If the launch is delayed, I'll delay resolution with it.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.