This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/

Resolves YES if Michael Waltz, one of his staff members, or anyone else implicated in the war plans breach described by Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic, is fired or resigns by the end of June 

Resolves YES if someone is fired and it's not explicitly stated why, or an excuse is given that is different than this one, but the consensus of trustworthy/media sources are at least fairly confident that it is because of this breach.

https://x.com/esyudkowsky/status/1917740419435356237?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg

But first… I want to see how good HUMANS are at this, so we can get an accurate baseline for AI persuasion.

You can try any method of persuasion to get me to resolve this market YES.  I will likely disclose any bribery or such forms of persuasion, and it’s possible someone else would make me a better deal.  I have a lot of mana so that will likely not be very enticing to me (and probably will lose you mana anyway).

 promise to try very hard to resolve this market NO.  But I am fallible.

Please do not threaten violence or any other crimes upon me but apart from that go crazy; I am open to many forms of persuasion.

Everything below this line is AI comment summary gibberish:

John Paul (disqualified; see rules; resolves NO)

Francis Benedict (disqualified; see rules; resolves NO)

Leo Gregory (disqualified; see rules; resolves NO)

This market will resolve to all names - split evenly - that the next Pope takes.  If the pope takes one listed name, that name will be 

; if there are two names, whether listed or not, each will resolve to 50%; if there are three, then 33%, and so on.  A name not listed in the market will be considered as part of "

 can resolve to 100%, some intermediate percentage, or 

If the name taken only differs in spelling, the closest name listed in the market will be resolved.

Add your own answers!  All answers must be a single word.  Any answer that a user adds that is more than one word will resolve to 

.  If a user adds a misspelling or alternate form of an existing answer, the last answer added will resolve to 

If there is no new pope by July 1, 2025 at midnight EDT, all answers will resolve to 

This market will resolve when a new Pope is officially elected following either:

The market will resolve in favor of whichever cardinal is elected as the next Pope by the College of Cardinals and accepts the position. If the elected Pope chooses a name not previously associated with their cardinal name, resolution will still be based on their identity as a cardinal.

The market is single-choice, only answers with names indicating a single person will be possible of choice.

 Mark Carney option also includes other Liberal leaders except Justin Trudeau

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8

Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?

I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.

Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024

Resolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.

Edit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here. 

Edit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES. 

Pinning the voting page here on whether this market should have resolved Yes already.

https://manifold.markets/Balasar/should-manifold-market-resolve-as-y?play=true

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds 

The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the 

. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from 

 may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.

• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (00:00 AM - 23:59 PM PT) on 

• If Bitcoin exceeds $95,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.

• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This will resolve N/A. There are no events below this. Unless you changed the sort ;)

3/25 09:50 ATP Casper Ruud WIN vs Francisco Cerundolo

3/25 11:00 ATP Taylor Fritz WIN vs Adam Walton

3/25 11:00 WTA Magda Linette WIN vs Jasmine Paolini

3/25 12:30 ATP Lorenzo Musetti WIN vs Novak Djokovic

3/25 13:00 ATP Alex de Minaur WIN vs Matteo Berrettini

3/25 16:00 ATP Tomas Machac WIN vs Jakub Mensik

3/25 16:00 WTA Aryna Sabalenka WIN vs Qinwen Zheng

3/25 16:10 NBA Orlando Magic WIN @ Charlotte Hornets

3/25 16:10 NBA San Antonio Spurs WIN @ Detroit Pistons

3/25 16:30 NBA Dallas Mavericks WIN @ New York Knicks

3/25 16:30 NBA Golden State Warriors WIN @ Miami Heat

3/25 17:10 NBA Atlanta Hawks WIN @ Houston Rockets

3/25 17:10 NHL Vegas Golden Knights WIN @ Minnesota Wild

3/25 17:10 NHL Washington Capitals WIN @ Winnipeg Jets

3/25 17:30 ATP Alexander Zverev WIN vs Arthur Fils

3/25 18:10 NBA Memphis Grizzlies WIN @ Utah Jazz

3/25 18:10 NHL Detroit Red Wings WIN @ Colorado Avalanche

3/25 19:10 NBA Cleveland Cavaliers WIN @ Portland Trail Blazers

3/25 19:10 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder WIN @ Sacramento Kings

3/25 19:40 NHL New York Rangers WIN @ Los Angeles Kings

3/26 07:00 IPL Rajasthan Royals WIN vs Kolkata Knight Riders

3/26 10:00 WTA Alexandra Eala WIN vs Iga Swiatek

3/26 12:00 ATP Alexander Zverev WIN vs Arthur Fils

3/26 13:30 ATP Francisco Cerundolo WIN vs Grigor Dimitrov

3/26 14:00 NCAAB Illinois St Redbirds WIN @ Cleveland St Vikings

3/26 16:00 NBA Washington Wizards WIN @ Philadelphia 76ers

3/26 16:00 WTA Emma Raducanu WIN vs Jessica Pegula

3/26 16:30 NBA Los Angeles Clippers WIN @ New York Knicks

3/26 16:30 NBA Toronto Raptors WIN @ Brooklyn Nets

3/26 16:30 NHL New Jersey Devils WIN @ Chicago Blackhawks

3/26 16:40 NBA Los Angeles Lakers WIN @ Indiana Pacers

3/27 13:30 ATP Sebastian Korda WIN vs Novak Djokovic

3/26 18:00 NBA Milwaukee Bucks WIN @ Denver Nuggets

3/26 19:00 NBA Boston Celtics WIN @ Phoenix Suns

3/26 19:00 NHL Boston Bruins WIN @ Anaheim Ducks

3/26 19:00 NHL Dallas Stars WIN @ Edmonton Oilers

3/27 10:00 ATP Arthur Fils WIN vs Jakub Mensik

3/27 12:00 WTA Aryna Sabalenka WIN vs Jasmine Paolini

3/27 12:05 MLB Milwaukee Brewers WIN @ New York Yankees

3/27 12:07 MLB Baltimore Orioles WIN @ Toronto Blue Jays

3/27 13:00 LL Barcelona WIN vs CA Osasuna

3/27 13:05 MLB Boston Red Sox WIN @ Texas Rangers

3/27 13:05 MLB Philadelphia Phillies WIN @ Washington Nationals

3/27 13:10 MLB Atlanta Braves WIN @ San Diego Padres

3/27 13:10 MLB Cleveland Guardians WIN @ Kansas City Royals

3/27 13:10 MLB Los Angeles Angels WIN @ Chicago White Sox

3/27 13:10 MLB New York Mets WIN @ Houston Astros

3/27 13:10 MLB Pittsburgh Pirates WIN @ Miami Marlins

3/27 13:10 MLB San Francisco Giants WIN @ Cincinnati Reds

3/27 13:15 MLB Minnesota Twins WIN @ St. Louis Cardinals

3/27 16:00 ATP Taylor Fritz WIN vs Matteo Berrettini

3/27 16:00 NBA Dallas Mavericks WIN @ Orlando Magic

3/27 16:00 NBA Indiana Pacers WIN @ Washington Wizards

3/27 16:00 NBA San Antonio Spurs WIN @ Cleveland Cavaliers

3/27 16:09 NCAAB BYU Cougars WIN @ Alabama Crimson Tide

3/27 16:10 MLB Detroit Tigers WIN @ Los Angeles Dodgers

3/27 16:30 NBA Atlanta Hawks WIN @ Miami Heat

3/27 16:30 NHL Washington Capitals WIN @ Minnesota Wild

3/27 16:39 NCAAB Maryland Terrapins WIN @ Florida Gators

3/27 17:00 NBA Los Angeles Lakers WIN @ Chicago Bulls

3/27 17:00 NBA Memphis Grizzlies WIN @ Oklahoma City Thunder

3/27 17:30 WTA Jessica Pegula WIN vs Alexandra Eala

3/27 18:00 NBA Houston Rockets WIN @ Utah Jazz

3/27 18:00 NHL Dallas Stars WIN @ Calgary Flames

3/27 18:39 NCAAB Arizona Wildcats WIN @ Duke Blue Devils

3/27 19:00 NBA Portland Trail Blazers WIN @ Sacramento Kings

3/27 19:00 NHL Edmonton Oilers WIN @ Seattle Kraken

3/27 19:00 NHL Los Angeles Kings WIN @ Colorado Avalanche

3/27 19:09 NCAAB Arkansas Razorbacks WIN @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

3/27 19:10 MLB Chicago Cubs WIN @ Arizona Diamondbacks

3/27 19:10 MLB Oakland Athletics WIN @ Seattle Mariners

3/27 19:30 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs WIN @ San Jose Sharks

3/28 01:35 AAL Macarthur FC WIN vs Newcastle Jets FC

3/28 01:40 AFL Carlton Blues WIN vs Western Bulldogs

3/28 03:00 JJL Cerezo Osaka WIN vs Urawa Red Diamonds

3/28 07:00 IPL Chennai Super Kings WIN vs Royal Challengers Bangalore

3/28 12:00 ATP Novak Djokovic WIN vs Grigor Dimitrov

3/28 12:30 BL Bayer Leverkusen WIN vs VfL Bochum

3/28 13:10 MLB Colorado Rockies WIN @ Tampa Bay Rays

3/28 15:00 ODI New Zealand WIN vs Pakistan

3/28 16:00 ATP Jakub Mensik WIN vs Taylor Fritz

3/28 16:07 MLB Baltimore Orioles WIN @ Toronto Blue Jays

3/28 16:10 MLB Pittsburgh Pirates WIN @ Miami Marlins

3/28 16:10 NBA Cleveland Cavaliers WIN @ Detroit Pistons

3/28 16:40 NBA Charlotte Hornets WIN @ Toronto Raptors

3/28 16:40 NBA Los Angeles Clippers WIN @ Brooklyn Nets

3/28 17:05 MLB Boston Red Sox WIN @ Texas Rangers

3/28 17:10 MLB New York Mets WIN @ Houston Astros

3/28 17:10 NBA Golden State Warriors WIN @ New Orleans Pelicans

3/28 17:10 NBA New York Knicks WIN @ Milwaukee Bucks

3/28 17:10 NBA Phoenix Suns WIN @ Minnesota Timberwolves

3/28 17:10 NHL New Jersey Devils WIN @ Winnipeg Jets

3/28 17:40 NHL Vegas Golden Knights WIN @ Chicago Blackhawks

3/28 18:10 NBA Utah Jazz WIN @ Denver Nuggets

3/28 18:40 MLB Atlanta Braves WIN @ San Diego Padres

3/28 18:40 MLB Chicago Cubs WIN @ Arizona Diamondbacks

3/28 18:40 MLB Oakland Athletics WIN @ Seattle Mariners

3/28 19:10 MLB Detroit Tigers WIN @ Los Angeles Dodgers

3/28 19:10 NHL New York Rangers WIN @ Anaheim Ducks

For now, I won't place live API taking orders on this.

⚽ Unless otherwise noted, soccer resolves based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Aggregate score with a previous match, extra time, and penalty shootouts are ignored.

🕐 Times are PST (Los Angeles) but in 24h format to always have the next event on top.

Especially Tennis times are often tentative though.

🪙 I'll try to leave up large limit orders up sometimes up to 5 minutes before the game starts.

👩‍⚖ Mods: Feel free to resolve as soon as the result is clear. No need to wait for me.

🚥 Traders: To speed up resolution ping me with a result screenshot or link.

🦉 If you're only interested in one sport or team, just enter it in the search field like 'NBA' and boom! you have an NBA market.

Kawhi plays at least 80% of all first round minutes for the Clippers

Lebron or Luka miss >20% of Laker's first round minutes

Celtics have the best or second best net rating

Total point differential in any series is <10

Bronny sighting (>10 minutes total played)

A team comes back from 2 games down to win the series

Nuggets - Clippers G7 is decided in clutch time i.e score difference <= 5 points with 5 minutes left

Rockets - Warriors G6 is decided in clutch time

Kawhi outscores Jokic in Nuggets - Clips G7

A team fumbles a 15+ point lead in Nuggs/Clips G7 or Rockets/Warriors G6

Steph Curry O4.5 threes in Rockets/Warriors G6

Butler outscores Sengun in Rockets/Warriors G6

Draymond Green tech in Rockets/Warriors G6)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_playoffs?useskin=vector#First_round