This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

Across the full year from 01 Jan 2025 through 31 Dec 2025, will Tesla outperform the S&P 500 index (specifically the index, not any ETF tracking it)?

https://x.com/mhutter42/status/2001857421569032444

Resolves N/A if the bet is called off. (One party not paying out and the other party magnanimously saying "it's ok, I won't hold you to it" does not count as the bet being called off.)

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

Resolves YES iff the proportion number of days that Trump golfs, from January 20, 2025 to December 31st, 2025 inclusive, is strictly greater than 25% (87 days or more) according to:

Will wait to resolve until it is clear that the site has been updated for every day in 2025. If the site is abandoned or taken down, will resolve NA. H/t 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C5vt6JViotl/?igsh=aGFtNHl4ZWI0Z3Nm

The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of between 4 and 20 letters (the standard 26 letters of the English alphabet, capitalization doesn't matter).

Each user gets one guess per calendar day.  Let's say you're submitting an answer on January 5th, and you wanted to submit "XABDU" as your solution, you would write a comment: "1/5/26: XABDU".  Please do not abuse this system; one guess per day!

I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a day, I'm human and will make up the hints the next day) at a random-ish time, starting on Christmas Eve.  You will get a number of hints based on the following scale:

I think this puzzle will be slightly more challenging than the first round.  On the other hand, you now have at least one puzzle to index off of (though this one will be different), and also have access to an MIT Puzzle Hunt alumnus who solved the first puzzle.  You are more likely to need to collaborate than on the first puzzle, in my opinion. You have the 25 days of Christmas (is this a thing? idk?) to complete the puzzle, by January 17th, 2026 at 11:59pm.

If you guess correctly, I'll immediately resolve the market to YES.  If you guess incorrectly, I'll try to like your comment to indicate it is wrong.

Fix Mist Plaintiff Titer Ichthys Frieze Cobble Gold Sprout Mykonos Spit Frigate Disciple Varanasi Plight Rotary Mouse Glove Cognate Delhi Tipperary Sheikh Mixtape Lignite Tin Proof Solvent Droughts Morgan Guano Ikbal Tartessos Forage Lich Montezuma

Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).

Pope Francis Allows Priests to Bless Same-Sex Couples -- on 12/18/2023

While the NYT States " the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, which has a large conservative contingent, accepted the new rule, noting that it marked a distinction between sacramental blessings like marriage and a pastoral blessing for people seeing “God’s loving grace in their lives.” -- I am not entirely sure this true.

Will there be split in the Catholic Church in the US?-- I will look only to see if a sizeable portion of the Catholic Church splits off (not rest of the world). Will use reputable sources of news to confirm if this is the case.

On November 30, 2025, Honduras will hold general elections in a single-round system where the candidate with the most votes becomes president. The race is dominated by Rixi Moncada (LIBRE), Salvador Nasralla (Liberal), and Nasry Asfura (National Party). Among them, Asfura is considered the most favorable toward Próspera ZEDE, being business-oriented and less confrontational about the zone’s existence compared to his rivals. 

This market resolves to Yes if the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) officially certifies Nasry "Tito" Asfura as the winner of the 2025 presidential election. 

If the result is overturned by a recognized Honduran court within 30 days of certification, the court’s ruling will determine the outcome. If the election is annulled or unresolved without a certified winner, the market resolves 