This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

At least 1 of Donald Trump’s assassination attempts was staged

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered to protect powerful people

Governments possess hidden non-human/UFO technology

The 2020 U.S. election was manipulated in a significant, hidden way

Trump timed policy for insider traders’ benefit

Phones always listen to their surroundings to improve their ads

COVID-19 vaccine release was timed not to favor Trump in the 2020 election

Missing scientists conspiracy theory (context in comment)                                          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missing_scientists_conspiracy_theory

Putin is using the Ukraine War to get the West to exterminate Russia's prison population and ethnic minorities for him by conscripting them en masse and sending them as human waves of cannon fodder

Some Americans had advance knowledge of the Pear Harbor attack

If Manifold users were surveyed, which conspiracy theory would receive the highest percentage of people saying they believe it is probably true?

Vote/trade based on what you think the average Manifold user is most likely to believe.

I will create a public poll after the market closes using the exact options listed in this market.

The market resolves to the conspiracy theory with the highest level of support in the poll.

If the poll is tied for first place, all options tied for first will resolve YES.

You may add more options. However, if an option is partially true or has significant public evidence supporting it, it may resolve N/A and will not be included in the poll.

https://x.com/oscpmentor/status/2053118155162259517

I am about to add an update where the visitor counter will only count +1 from a new unique IP. 

I consider my website having "Gone Viral" if more than 10,000 unique visitors arrive within 30 days. 

Follows the identical Polymarket resolution (

https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026

). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hantaviruses are a family of viruses spread mainly by rodents. In humans, they can cause Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). While Hantaviruses can cause severe, life-threatening disease, transmission is typically through contact with infected rodent excreta, not via human-to-human transmission. Historically, human-to-human transmission of Hantavirus is extremely rare, making the potential for a global pandemic fundamentally different from respiratory viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2.

Liverpool beat Chelsea (Sat May 09, 12:30)

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Wolverhampton Wanderers (Sat May 09, 15:00)

Fulham beat Bournemouth (Sat May 09, 15:00)

Sunderland beat Manchester United (Sat May 09, 15:00)

Manchester City beat Brentford (Sat May 09, 17:30)

Burnley beat Aston Villa (Sun May 10, 14:00)

Crystal Palace beat Everton (Sun May 10, 14:00)

Nottingham Forest beat Newcastle United (Sun May 10, 14:00)

West Ham United beat Arsenal (Sun May 10, 16:30)

Tottenham Hotspur beat Leeds United (Mon May 11, 20:00)

 (listed first) beats the away team in regulation+stoppage. 

 if draw or away win. Abandoned/postponed = 

This market resolves YES if Russia and Ukraine announce a formal ceasefire agreement before August 1, 2026. The ceasefire must be officially confirmed by both governments or their authorized representatives. Resolution will be verified through official statements from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as well as major international news sources including Reuters, AP News, BBC, and Al Jazeera.

A ceasefire agreement constitutes a mutual commitment to halt active hostilities. It does not require a comprehensive peace settlement or resolution of territorial disputes. If a ceasefire is announced but subsequently violated or broken before August 1, 2026, the market still resolves YES if the initial agreement was formally reached.

US-brokered peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow remain on hold as Washington's attention is gripped by its military campaign in Iran. While representatives continue to meet in various formats, the core demands of both sides show little sign of changing. Putin outlined Russia's terms for a ceasefire and negotiations in June 2024, stating that Russia must be allowed to keep all the land it occupies, and be handed all of the provinces that it claims but does not fully control, and that Ukraine must officially end its plans to join NATO. President Zelensky is seeking legally binding security guarantees from the United States and European partners to protect Ukraine from renewed Russian aggression, with Kyiv insisting on ratification by the US Congress.

2026 may bring a fragile ceasefire as Trump's diplomacy clashes with Russia's maximalist demands and Ukraine's security needs, making a frozen conflict more likely than a lasting peace. The road to a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia still remains unclear, with the core demands of both sides showing little sign of changing, and a frozen conflict scenario becoming a very real possibility.

https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may

$415,341 has traded on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to nor..." as of April 10, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Mark...

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (Cushing, Oklahoma)

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

“This market is based on the official UFC broadcast fight clock shown on screen for all viewers.”

“The timing starts at 0:00 when Round 1 begins and the official fight clock appears.”

“The market ends exactly when the clock reaches 0:10. Any action occurring after 0:10 is not counted.” OFFICIAL UFC CLOCK DISPLAY ONLY 

“The market resolves to YES if Sean Strickland is successfully taken down to the ground by Khamzat Chimaev at any point within the 0:00–0:10 window of Round 1.”

“A successful takedown means Strickland is brought from a standing position to the ground as a direct result of Chimaev’s grappling actions.”

“Multiple attempts are allowed within the time window. Failed attempts, scrambles, or partial entries do NOT affect resolution.”

“If Strickland is taken down successfully at any time once before the clock reaches 0:10, the market resolves to YES, regardless of previous failed attempts.”