This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this 

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

This market will resolve to the total number of unique in-person attendees at 

 (EAG NYC 2026), held from October 16–18, 2026.

Calvin Wang is an MIT undergrad in the class of 2030. The course is known as Autobiography and Society, and submission is done online.

It is known that Calvin goes to bed around 4am ET. It is also known that Calvin has fallen asleep in class at least once. It is also known that he turned in the previous four discussion assignments 146 minutes, 118 minutes, 162 minutes, and 182 minutes late, respectively.

The market resolves YES if and only if the discussion posts are made with timestamps strictly before the deadline.

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games (Rams, Bills, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers)

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

Steelers beat Browns (10/01) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Colts beat Commanders (10/04) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Patriots beat Bills (10/04) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Jaguars beat Bengals (10/04) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cowboys beat Texans (10/04) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Cardinals beat Giants (10/04) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Packers beat Buccaneers (10/04) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Dolphins beat Vikings (10/04) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Chiefs beat Raiders (10/04) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Chargers beat Seahawks (10/04) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Lions beat Panthers (10/04) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Falcons beat Saints (10/05) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out, join the excitement today!

AAA Fuel Prices

Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of (

) deaths from the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic

If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.

The "Other" category means any deaths total larger than the current buckets.  I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).

I will not bet in this market, so as to remain objective if there is gray area in determining the most accurate deaths number.

https://manifold.markets/bens/2026-ebola-epidemic-case-count

This market will resolve based on the number of full-time employees of OpenAI or Anthropic who voluntarily resign, citing ethical reasons (including but not limited to risks of human extinction or disempowerment), or publicly announce that they will do so, during the month of September 2026, Pacific Time.

Jacob Coxon counts as one such person for the purposes of this market. See 

, which went viral with 712K+ likes as of September 10. His resignation was covered in the 

I'll wait for two extra days, in case any resignations happen during September but are only publicized later. If needed, I may add more options to this market. N+ means greater than or equal to N.

I think now is a good time to resign from a frontier lab, especially if you work on capabilities, likely even if you work on safety. The more people resign soon after Jacob Coxon, the bigger a story this could become.

Here are a few resources/considerations for lab employees who think they might resign:

Let me know if there are other resources I should add.

If you work at a lab and quitting is the right decision for you, I hope this market can play a small role in helping you make that step. If there's a growing consensus that 

 will quit, maybe that will give you the confidence that 

 can quit. Or maybe the silly incentive of insider-trading on your own resignation will push you over the line? In any case, good luck!

🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇬🇧 George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

🇬🇧 Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)

🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

🇳🇱 Max Verstappen (Oracle Red Bull Racing)

🇦🇺 Oscar Piastri (McLaren Mastercard)

This market will resolve to the winning driver of the 

2026 Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia

 (Round 16 of the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship), scheduled to take place at the Sepang International Circuit from October 2 to October 4, 2026.

Resolution will be determined by the official race classification published by the FIA and 

. Any penalties or disqualifications applied by the stewards prior to the finalization of the official classification on the race weekend will be taken into account. Subsequent changes to the standings after the race weekend concludes will not affect the resolution of this market.

If the race is canceled, postponed, or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A. If a driver not explicitly listed as an option wins the race, the market will resolve to "Other".

Due to security and geopolitical concerns surrounding the Sakhir circuit in Bahrain, the FIA relocated the 16th round of the 2026 season to the Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia. While the race is being hosted in Malaysia for the first time since 2017, it officially retains the "Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix" branding and sponsorship. This presents a unique challenge for the grid, as teams face a high-speed, technically demanding track with a lack of recent simulation data.

*Note that this style of betting market will contain the top 7 drivers in the WDC championship standings before the start of the Grand Prix.