(This settles EOY if necessary but we will surely know much sooner)
Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if independent testing confirms the Donut Battery contains less than 0.1% lithium by weight. The market resolves NO if testing confirms lithium content at or above 0.1% by weight. Resolution will be determined by peer-reviewed analysis, official company disclosure with third-party verification, or independent laboratory testing from credible institutions (e.g., VTT Technical Research Centre, university materials science departments, or certified battery analysis labs). Links to testing results and composition data will serve as primary resolution sources.
Background
Donut Lab announced at CES 2026 that it had developed an all-solid-state battery with claimed energy density of 400 Wh/kg, five-minute charging capability, 100,000-cycle lifespan, and materials made from "100% green and abundant materials with global availability." After initial test results were published, several battery experts publicly challenged the claim that the cell operates without lithium, with specialists pointing out that charging curves and additional data indicated it could be a lithium-ion cell. The company could be using an anode-free sodium-metal battery instead of lithium metal anodes.
Related markets:
1,000I thought they had said it's lithium-free. What they actually said:
100% green and abundant materials with global availability
No reliance on rare or geopolitically sensitive resources
Lower material cost than lithium-ion
I'm operating on the assumption they will not outright lie, but will lie by omission or misrepresentation.
I'm going to put some limit orders up.