MANIFOLD
Who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
12
Ṁ1.1kṀ3k
2030
44%
Position abolished
19%
Hassan Khomeini
15%
Other
11%
Mojtaba Khamenei
6%
Sadeq Amoli Larijani
4%
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Supreme Leader, not who is elected or nominated. Acting/Interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office.

If position abolished, resolves position abolished.

Resolves based on credible media reporting and official Iran sources..

Resolves same as:

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnextiranleader/who-will-be-khameneis-successor/kxnextiranleader-45jan01

N/a if Khamenei remains in power and Kalshi resolves all options NO

  • Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Interim leaders and position abolishment: If an interim leader is in place and then the position is abolished, the market resolves to position abolished unless the interim leader formally assumed office before abolishment.

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opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 44% order
opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 33% order

Important question, should get boosted?

bought Ṁ7 NO

If there is someone on an interim basis, and then the position is removed or a new permanent replacement is found, would it resolve to the interim or to abolished/permanent leader?

@NicBergman I’m going to resolve based on Kalshi. However my interpretation would be resolves abolished unless the interim president formally assumed office before abolishment

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