Resolves based on trusted news sources.

Based on trusted news sources saying that's what happened, or trusted news sources saying that the Pentagon says it happened? & how trusted? And if they're careful and circumspect in their direct reporting ("According to Pentagon officials...") but then drop it in indirect references later ("... latest escalation since Iran shot down a helicopter in March.")?

@marvingardens Good question. I will resolve the question based on trusted news sources saying that's what happened. If the second scenario occurs, I will attempt to resolve based on consensus in the media.

If such a scenario does occur, I'll wait until the dust settles and it's hopefully clear what exactly occurred.

If, after that, the situation still remains ambiguous, I will use my best judgement to resolve this question.

I don't anticipate this scenario occurring, given that it's unlikely the US government admits Iran shot down one of their planes and is lying.

@Qoiuoiuoiu I remember in Trump's first term when the Pentagon was making up attacks on American ships by Iran; and I remember literally just a few months ago when CIA operatives were caught in the middle of a plot to attack a US Navy ship and blame it on Venezuela;

This is fully within bounds, the USS Maine playbook is still current

According to two, The Pentagon have confirmed that a f-35 aircraft were forced to take emergency landing after taking Iranian fire.

@PromisingWind according to twz

https://www.twz.com/air/usaf-f-35-makes-emergency-landing-after-allegedly-being-hit-by-iranian-fire

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/f-35a-lands-after-taking-fire-over-iran-pilot-stable/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/19/politics/f-35-damage-iran-war

@Qoiuoiuoiu How will this resolve on hitting an aircraft, but it manages to land at an airport?

@JonathanErhardt https://manifold.markets/Qoiuoiuoiu/will-iran-shoot-down-a-us-military#ej50ovbrvxr

did they hit or not????

From WPD: Needs checking:

A US F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing at United States air base in the MiddleEast after it was struck by what is believed to be Iranian fire, according to two sources familiar with the matter reports CNN.

Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for US Central Command, said the fifth-generation stealth jet was "flying a combat mission over Iran" when it was forced to make an emergency landing. Hawkins said the aircraft landed safely and the incident is under investigation.

"The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition," Hawkins added. "This incident is under investigation."

The incident would be the first time Iran has hit a US aircraft in the war started in late February. Both the US and Israel are flying F-35s in the conflict; the aircraft costs upwards of $100 million.

https://watchpeopledie.tv/h/sandshit/post/477863/the-irgc-released-a-video-showing

certainly it shouldn't go back down to 10% since its now clear they have at least some air defense capacity

@Balasar Lol. Lmao even.

@Dynd bet it down to 10, I've put 300 at 11

@Dynd whoa still has the gif avatar working!

if it took damage and was able to land and the pilot is ok idk how that counts as 'shooting down'

@strutheo it doesnt! we discussed it lower down

https://aje.news/fs4nzb?update=4417272

Would it count if battle damage resulted in an emergency landing?

An emergency landing may or may not result in an airframe loss.

Is the important thing battle damage that results in a mission kill or does it have to result in a complete airframe loss?

Context: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034666586213155234

@LarsOsborne https://manifold.markets/Qoiuoiuoiu/will-iran-shoot-down-a-us-military#ej50ovbrvxr

@loonloozook At the same time: https://x.com/Ascii211/status/2034675259035562397

@loonloozook More commentary on video: https://x.com/softwarnet/status/2034699553807413663

March 13 (Reuters) - Five U.S. Air Force refueling planes ​were struck and ‌damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan ​air base in ​Saudi Arabia, the Wall ⁠Street Journal reported ​on Friday, citing two ​U.S. officials.

The planes, which were hit during an ​Iranian missile strike ​on the Saudi base in ‌recent ⁠days, were damaged but not fully destroyed and are ​being repaired, ​the ⁠Journal said, adding that no ​one was killed ​in ⁠the strikes.

https://www.reuters.com/world/five-us-air-force-refueling-planes-hit-iranian-strike-saudi-arabia-wsj-reports-2026-03-13/

@Astraea I don’t think this necessarily resolves it, but the probability is way too low.