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Resolving this NO as no new evidence appears to have come to light. Thanks to all for trading and making this fun!

If you liked this market, consider trading on the April version:

@Qoiuoiuoiu when is this getting closed?

@TonyM Ha, that's funny. I posted the comment and forgot to resolve lol

Despite the almost certain NO resolution in a few days and me being 2k in the hole on YES, I still feel very good about this market and it's creator.

• Solid & reasonable criteria being held to

• Creator is waiting to confirm if reports dredge up that old public intel was incorrect

• Recent news shows it was not only possible but entirely plausible and this market was highly relevant

If anything, despite the likely resolution, I feel this market was underpriced approaching close. I see little reason other than "more operations = more opportunities for shoot down" that the odds should be so suppressed. Appears to have been much more of a toss up to me and makes my 2k feel quite vindicated, directionally.

@Stralor (Well played to my counterparties!)

@Stralor , in fairness, it is bizarre to me that we got two resolution at zero and then there were almost immediately two.

@Stralor I concur with all of this!

Great work on running this @Qoiuoiuoiu

I also feel like this market was underpriced for most of its history, despite the NO resolution, but congrats NO traders, sometimes you get lucky 😆

@bens it definitely was.. people severely overestimate US capabilities… but war is messy, it is chaos.

Missed by 3 days

https://aje.news/2j1442?update=4459384 quotes some analyst that “multiple US aircraft have been shot down”. May be fake news, still perhaps 7 days is not enough for the whole truth to emerge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-03/us-mounts-rescue-operation-for-f-15-fighter-jet-downed-in-iran

Timing was off by a few days.

Nonetheless this verifies that it’s the first time, and therefore we can close as no.

@Astraea not sure how this proves it’s the first time

@mariopasquato they say it’s the first known combat Downing.

@Astraea We'll need more than one source to verify this.

US F-15E pilot likely captured by Iranian forces: Local media - Türkiye Today

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2039939656284877006

@Tripping only a little bit late

@Tripping

@DataDependent This appears to be a different incident. CSAR operations being conducted in southern Iran. Hopefully the pilot and WSO ejected safely and are able to get rescued.

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/03/iran-us-fighter-shot-down

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2040044384951922868

@ChadCotty yeah, saw this after: https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2040059365189722249?s=46&t=igHrMlCogprLZU8BkHI0MQ

@DataDependent , that said, a bit too late for the market….

https://aje.news/1jg6hu?update=4457225 too late obviously, but if confirmed shows that the capability was there, so worth double checking previous claims

I don't see any indication where it states that it cannot land after getting damaged.And nowhere does it say it has to be destroyed

@BradleyNorthover I think "shoot down" specifies it must actually go down due to the shooting, and not just be shot at and damaged

@BradleyNorthover Please see https://manifold.markets/Qoiuoiuoiu/will-iran-shoot-down-a-us-military#ej50ovbrvxr