How old will Tumbles be when he perishes?
79 years
expected
91%
Above 42
78%
Above 55
71%
Above 69
50%
Above 100

YES Resolution Dates (YYYY/MM/DD):
• Above 42 - 2036/01/05
• Above 55 - 2049/01/05
• Above 69 - 2063/01/05
• Above 100 - 2094/01/05

I have some transhumanist sympathies, but for the purposes of this market, Tumbles is officially no longer alive if there is a period of 24 hours where he does not have a physical living human body with a basically operational brain.

In a situation where there is uncertainty about whether Tumbles is dead or is merely missing, this market can be resolved with a bias towards assuming death. In such a scenario, the market should wait until 420 days after the possible death date before resolving, to give time for Tumbles to turn up. If moderators judge that there is good reason to think Tumbles died (in addition to Tumbles simply not being heard from), then the waiting period can be shortened to 69 days.

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