If Trump announces his candidacy for President in 2024, will it be in an even indexed month? (i.e. February, April, June, etc).
Basic
12
Ṁ5262
resolved May 10
Resolved
NO
Jan 15, 10:28pm: Semi-random market, like a coin flip but a bit more fun. Trump picks. Resolves as MKT if he does not run.
#️ Politics
#Trump
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Please Resolve
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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
11 Comments
10 Holders
183 Trades
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Why is this still open, please resolve. Given the account has been inactive, any trustworthy ish user can resolve

predicted NO

@firstuserhere No can do - the market has to close before us trustworthyish folk can resolve. I’ve already tried to get the admins’ attention. @DavidChee? @ian?

@NcyRocks ohhh okay, didn't know the close rule

predicted NO

@firstuserhere It’s a bit counterintuitive.

@firstuserhere wait I'm active again

Trump announced his campaign in November 2022; resolving NO.

Never mind, this market is still open. @DavidChee, this should resolve NO.

How should this resolve?

predicted NO

*

30 days hath September, April, June and November. So it should be 182/366 which is 49.7% rather than 50% exactly
@samanddeanus There are all sorts of second-order effects, like his probability of acknowledging is not uniform over time. I think it's close enough to 50%.

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