What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
4
375Ṁ2562026
92%
Nvidia will outperform the S&P
83%
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.
66%
SSI will release a product
66%
I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning
50%
I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.
50%
Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP
50%
The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.
50%
An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters
50%
The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china
50%
The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked
34%
OpenAI IPO
34%
Anthropic IPO
34%
One of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy
10%
I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting
8%
An LLM will beat me at chess
Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below. If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.
Clarifications
"SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.
"Nvidia will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year. It's not sufficient for Nvidia to outperform at some point in the year.
"An LLM will beat me at chess": See this market:
“Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP” : according to this source or some other official announcement by the org.
"The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours": At 50% success rate, acoording to this source.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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