Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
44
1kṀ2527
2026
78%
Mainstream narrative shift
76%
1e27 FLOP public model by EOY 2025
56%
OpenBrain Revenue 45bi 2026 Annual
50%
AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree
45%
CCP nationalizes AI Research

From the famous AI 2027 report:

https://ai-2027.com/

The authors state that predictions beyond 2026 are more uncertain, so I think keeping track on how the earlier predictions are going may tell us more about how the whole scenario works out.

Mainstream narrative shift refers to: "The mainstream narrative around AI has changed from “maybe the hype will blow over” to “guess this is the next big thing” "

Feel free to suggest questions. I will avoid questions that are impossible to resolve accurately (e.g does OpenAI have a secret Agent-1 model aiding their AI R&D)

OpenBrain refers to the placeholder name for the leading AI company in the US in that point in time. CCP refers to the Chinese Communist Party.

I am not sure how easy it will be to assess CAPEX and Power requirements for private companies and AI as a whole so I left these predictions out. But if I am convinced they can be resolved accurately I'll add them

  • Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the leading AI company is a division of a larger corporation, the creator will use internal revenue reports to identify the leader. The assessment will be based on revenue attributed to AI services (e.g., Gemini or Google AI Pro subscriptions).

  • Update 2025-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Late 2026 means end-of-year 2026 (EOY 2026).

    • "AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree" will be evaluated as: there is an established consensus that AI can fully replace a junior software engineer.

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How will you evaluate "AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree"? What prevents this claim from being true right now?

Also, does 'late 2026' mean by the end of the year, or something else?

@2b3o4o Late 2026 means EOY 2026

I will evaluate "AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree" as "it is established consensus that AI can fully replace a junior software engineer". There are some experiments in that direction right now, but its highly contested/inconclusive.

What if the leading AI company is a division of a much larger company?

@JoshSnider I will then try to close the market based on internal revenue reports. E.g if Google wins the AI race then this market closes based on the revenue attributed to AI services, such as Gemini or Google AI Pro subscriptions.

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