Which AI future will we get?
71
1kṀ58332150
5%
AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact
35%
Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues
18%
AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues
19%
Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"
23%
Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar
Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI.
I will try my best to resolve the market in the future, but realistically this is as much an opinion poll as a prediction market. I will use the market probabilities as a Schelling point for how to resolve it, but I may deviate from them if I judge that they are mistaken or manipulated.
If none of them apply, the market resolves to the closest option I can round it to. If we have an edge case, the market may resolve to a PROB mixture.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
What animal will we be to AI by 2045?
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance
Which AI 2027 ending will the next three years look more like?
Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI
70% chance
When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
34% chance
Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?
46% chance
If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?
79% chance