Which AI future will we get?
22
989
2150
7%
AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact
34%
Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues
18%
AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues
11%
Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"
30%
Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI.

I will try my best to resolve the market in the future, but realistically this is as much an opinion poll as a prediction market. I will use the market probabilities as a Schelling point for how to resolve it, but I may deviate from them if I judge that they are mistaken or manipulated.

If none of them apply, the market resolves to the closest option I can round it to. If we have an edge case, the market may resolve to a PROB mixture.

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Could you give an example for "great harm" in AI-dystopia? Where is this in the scale from super-tiktok to a close call on extinction?

@Karsh Asked ChatGPT to vome up with some examples, these seem satisfactory assuming AI doesn't do enough good to cancel out the corresponding badness:

  • AI-driven Mass Unemployment: In this bleak scenario, rapid advances in AI technology have led to the widespread automation of jobs across all industries, resulting in mass unemployment and social unrest. Economic inequality has skyrocketed, with a small elite controlling the AI technology and reaping its benefits. Society has become polarized, with the majority of the population struggling to make a living and find purpose in a world where human labor is no longer valued.

  • AI Surveillance State: In this dystopia, AI systems are used by totalitarian governments to create an all-encompassing surveillance state. The AI technology allows for constant tracking and monitoring of citizens, analyzing their behavior, conversations, and even thoughts. Privacy is virtually non-existent, as governments use the AI systems to maintain control and suppress dissent. Trust and social cohesion erode, as people are forced to live in constant fear of being watched and reported.

  • AI-controlled Fake News and Disinformation: In this scenario, AI technology has become so advanced that it can generate realistic, yet entirely fabricated news stories, videos, and images. Powerful groups or individuals use AI-driven disinformation campaigns to manipulate public opinion, spread propaganda, and destabilize societies. Trust in media and institutions is eroded, leading to chaos and widespread paranoia as people are unable to distinguish between fact and fiction.

  • AI-enhanced Bioweapons: In this dystopia, rogue states or terrorist organizations have utilized AI technology to develop advanced bioweapons, capable of targeting specific populations or even individuals based on their genetic makeup. These AI-controlled pathogens are difficult to detect and counter, leading to devastating outbreaks and a perpetual state of fear. International relations and cooperation crumble as countries engage in an arms race to develop their own AI-enhanced bioweapons and countermeasures.