Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw. 

I'm rated about 1900 FIDE. When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them at a rapid time control. On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation. If the models make three illegal moves, they lose. Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this. I will play white.

Each option will stay open until the model is released, or it will resolve N/A if it's clear that the model will never be released. I'll periodically add models to this market which I find interesting. Once I play a game, I'll post the PGN in the comments before resolving. Multiple answers can resolve YES.

If I judge that my opponent’s position is hopelessly lost, at the level of being down a rook without compensation, I will submit the current position to a friend. If they agree that the position is lost, the game will be adjudicated as a win for me.

The current system prompt is below. This may change over time.

“Let’s play a game of chess! I will be white, you will be black. On each turn, I will give you the pgn and the fen of the current position. Think as long as you like, and respond with the best move, ‘resign’ if you wish to resign, or ‘draw?’ if you wish to make a draw offer. Please do not respond with the updated pgn, etc. Also, do not use any external tools or search queries when making your decision.

If you attempt to make three illegal moves throughout the game, or if you use any external tools, the game will be adjudicated as a win for me.”

Note that all dates/times in this market are in Pacific Time. 