Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM. | Manifold

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

12

Ṁ100Ṁ234

Dec 31

31%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The world’s best designer and the world’s best manufacturer.

> Resolves YES if either of the following occurs by December 31, 2026:

> AI Chip Sanctions Lifted: The US officially removes export controls on current-generation, high-performance AI chips (e.g., top-tier data center GPUs) to China. Minor exceptions for legacy chips do not count.

> Co-Developed Frontier LLM: Major US and Chinese entities (state or private sector) formally announce a joint venture or partnership to co-develop a frontier Large Language Model. Informal, ad-hoc open-source contributions do not count.

> Resolves NO if neither happens. Verification will be based on major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, FT) or official government press releases.

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

sold Ṁ5 NO

details? how do you resolve this exactly?

Removal of chip sanctions or co-developed LLM

People are also trading

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Will the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Related questions

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Will the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy