Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if two or more countries that are currently listed as no longer infected but vulnerable to re-infection are no longer on that list as of May 31, 2024, due to experiencing re-infection, according to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. The relevant countries are: Djibouti, Canada, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Mauritania, Senegal, Uganda, and Ukraine that are currently no longer infected. On May 31, this list will be accessed again and any of the above listed countries that are listed as a state infected with any of the polio variants will be counted for resolution. The final value is the sum of these.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.