The WHO has reported a total of 888 cases of HPAI H5N1 in humans between 2003-01-01 and 2024-03-28, mostly transmitted by birds. However, recent widespread outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 in cows have made it look pretty likely that it's now landed a mutation for cow-to-cow transmission, and thus potentially is on the verge of unlocking broader mammal-to-mammal transmission. So, then, as an initial basic measure of how bad we expect things to get how quickly: do we expect there to be at least 10,000 cases of HPAI H5N1 in humans—counting those initial 888—before the end of 2024?
Results will be measured via reference to the WHO's weekly HPAI H5N1 situation reports. If those reports stop being produced and/or are taken offline while this market remains unresolved, I'll do my best to find a trustworthy alternate source.
1,000New report is up from January 3rd. However, its case-count-total is still dated back to December 12th. (954 cases.) Resolution remains in limbo pending reports either extending properly through the end of the year or hitting 10,000.
Latest WHO report at present lists 939 cases, on which basis market would resolve No. However, that report is from December 13th. I don't expect their numbers to have changed drastically in the past two-and-a-half weeks, but I'll nonetheless await a report dated to December 31st or later, just to be sure.
(If, hypothetically, their last report of 2024 is under 10k and their first of 2025 is over, that'll be an edge case and I'll likely resolve to N/A. But I mostly don't expect that to come up in practice.)
1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.
https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/