Will there be at least 10,000 worldwide cases of human infection by HPAI H5N1 before 2025?
16
771
2025
38%
chance

The WHO has reported a total of 888 cases of HPAI H5N1 in humans between 2003-01-01 and 2024-03-28, mostly transmitted by birds. However, recent widespread outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 in cows have made it look pretty likely that it's now landed a mutation for cow-to-cow transmission, and thus potentially is on the verge of unlocking broader mammal-to-mammal transmission. So, then, as an initial basic measure of how bad we expect things to get how quickly: do we expect there to be at least 10,000 cases of HPAI H5N1 in humans—counting those initial 888—before the end of 2024?

Results will be measured via reference to the WHO's weekly HPAI H5N1 situation reports. If those reports stop being produced and/or are taken offline while this market remains unresolved, I'll do my best to find a trustworthy alternate source.

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1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.

https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/