Will the spillover event of a zoonotic disease into humans occur in 2024. This disease can have been previously recorded in the animal population but not in humans.
This will resolve yes if such a spillover event happens in 2024 and no if it doesn't. To resolve yes it does not matter if the pathogen is human to human transmittable only that it is animal to human transmittable. The number of human infections greater than 1 is also not relevant. If such a spillover happens before 2024 then that is not included.
The question closes May 31 2025 to allow time for the reporting of an event near the end of 2024.
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https://academic.oup.com/jid/article-abstract/231/2/495/7742004?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false
Published 26 Aug 2024:
Bats are recognized as the natural reservoir of several zoonotic viruses that pose a threat to public health worldwide. In our recent reports, we describe the identification of a novel poxvirus, IsrRAPXV, in Egyptian fruit bats. This poxvirus is associated with high morbidity and mortality in bats.
Methods: Herein, we describe the identification of a poxvirus in a female patient hospitalized with systemic symptoms and severe painful skin lesions on her hands. We performed quantitative polymerase chain reaction, whole genome sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis to identify and characterize this poxvirus as the etiologic agent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N2
H5 N2 is a subtype of the species Influenzavirus A (avian influenza virus or bird flu virus). The subtype infects a wide variety of birds, including chickens, ducks, turkeys, falcons, and ostriches. Affected birds usually do not appear ill, and the disease is often mild as avian influenza viral subtypes go. Some variants of the subtype are much more pathogenic than others, and outbreaks of "high-path" H5N2 result in the culling of thousands of birds in poultry farms from time to time. It appears that people who work with birds can be infected by the virus, but suffer hardly any noticeable health effects. Even people exposed to the highly pathogenic H5N2 variety that killed ostrich chicks in South Africa only seem to have developed conjunctivitis, or a perhaps a mild respiratory illness. There is no evidence of human-to-human spread of H5N2. On November 12, 2005 it was reported that a falcon was found to have H5N2.[1] On June 5, 2024, the first confirmed human case of H5N2 was reported in Mexico.[2]
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There has been a report of a 'mouse fever' affecting Russian soldiers. https://youtu.be/WF6mr0F8xUM?si=Mvsu3gJvL2BtUtlJ if this is a new spillover event it would still not count as it has happened before 2024.