I believe this market is pretty severely mispriced, my probability ordering would be VWO > VFMF > VEA >> VONE = VOO = MGC >>>> VT, and all the probabilities (except for VT) should be closer to 1/6 because market performance has high variance. But I don't want to put any more mana into this market.

It should be virtually impossible for VT to win because VT is essentially a weighted average of VONE (or VOO) + VEA + VWO, so at least one of those ETFs should outperform VT regardless of what happens. By a different interpretation of "which ETF should I buy?", I'd say VT is the best one to buy for that exact reason.

Wow—I was just researching some of these funds last night, so I would say the Mega Cap (which I own irl). I was looking at the Russel 1000, but an article showed that the returns for S&P 500 and Russel 1000 correlate closely over time.

I gave up on foreign stocks years ago;

@TrickyDuck I would agree. 3% of stocks account for all the growth in the s&p 500 over the past few years.