Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024

Question

Resolving criteria:

1) formal war is declared (yes)

2) informal war is declared, which is commonly accepted as a war (Ukraine invasion, operation ensuing freedom, etc) (yes) - the current Israel intervention in Gaza is considered a war; the current relationship between Israel and Hezbollah is not considered a war. (Edit Oct 1, it is probably considered a war between Hezbollah and Israel now, however this does not include Iran as Iran has not joined the war)

3) 2024 ends (no)

Non resolving criteria

1) threats of war

2) minor bombing/ rocket attacks/ cyberwarfare (stuxnet would not resolve)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.