The interesting twist was that at less than 5% party won't get into parliament UNLESS it wins at least one district. Which was likely for the Greens. possible for Left and BVB. But none did. Thus the AFD got 30 out of 88 seats. Which is an iffy above "one third". Even Überhangmandate et al would not change it, Thus the bet now at 99%, Let's resolve, please!

For anyone interested: https://manifold.markets/TimonSchneider/will-the-farright-german-party-alte?play=true :)

Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?

50% chance.

They currently poll at (only) 26%, but it turns out the Brandenburg election rules have an interesting twist: There is a primary vote for a specific person and a secondary vote for a party. The primary vote winner of each district will always get into the parliament, even if the party's secondary votes determine a lower percentage of the seats (Überhangmandate). In most cases, the other parties get additional seats to correct the seat percentage according to the secondary votes (Ausgleichsmandate). In Brandenburg, they limited the second part to limit the size of the parliament. So there is a chance, the AfD gets more seats than secondary votes.

Heard in this podcast: https://lage.link/ldn/379 at 1:02:55