Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
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300Ṁ10kresolved Mar 1
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Resolves YES if the AfD party gets the most seats compared to any party after the 2025 national election.
Resolves NO if there is any other party that gets more seats than the AfD. CDU/CSU will be counted as one party.
Edit: This market will apply to the expected earlier election in 2025.
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filled a Ṁ5 YES at 15% order2mo
Interesting that this is only at 5%, given that the momentum is in the AfD's favor, and that that Democratic Institute poll had them only 2 points behind CDU/CSU.
@TimonSchneider Thanks for the quick clarification! And for the market, hope it gains more traction.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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