The 2024 Brandenburg state election is on September 22.
Resolves YES if the AfD party gets at least a third of the seats after the election.
Resolves NO if they get less than a third of the seats.
Getting a third of the seats means a lot more influence.
They currently poll at (only) 26%, but it turns out the Brandenburg election rules have an interesting twist: There is a primary vote for a specific person and a secondary vote for a party. The primary vote winner of each district will always get into the parliament, even if the party's secondary votes determine a lower percentage of the seats (Überhangmandate). In most cases, the other parties get additional seats to correct the seat percentage according to the secondary votes (Ausgleichsmandate). In Brandenburg, they limited the second part to limit the size of the parliament. So there is a chance, the AfD gets more seats than secondary votes.
Heard in this podcast: https://lage.link/ldn/379 at 1:02:55