IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
4
32
Ṁ88Ṁ110
2030
47%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution matches with https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-12dc938abd23 except resolves N/A if the US is not a party to the Iran nuclear deal on 31 Dec 2025.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
40% chance
Will Iran reach the 'weapons-grade' uranium enrichment threshold before 2025?
51% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will Iran bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
20% chance
In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?
24% chance
Will an Iranian nuclear facility be bombed by 2025?
34% chance
Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
16% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
48% chance