Will an Iranian nuclear facility be bombed by 2025?
28
198
1k
2025
42%
chance

Resolves YES if any of (the U.S. government, Economist, WSJ, NYT, or FT) reports there was a bombing at an Iranian nuclear facility (any location on this list, or a site the article refers to as a nuclear facility) before Jan 1 2025 (Tehran local time).

If the news source reports an explosion at the site with an unknown cause it is assumed to be a bombing after two weeks, unless the reporting news source identifies it as an accident/non-antagonistic cause before then.

The criteria for "at" and "explosion" are fairly permissive. Some examples:

  • A bomb detonating within a parking lot used primarily by the site, even if it's distant from the site, resolves YES.

  • An explosive attack on site personnel while they're not onsite does not resolve this question.

  • An aerial bombing, crashing aircraft, or grenade attack on the grounds of the site (even if it's far from the specific locations that handle nuclear material) resolves YES.

  • A cyber attack, non-thermal mechanical failure, or small arms fire do not resolve this question.

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