Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
50
1kṀ63332030
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
USA campaigns in the middle east in the 90s and 2000s was primarily about stopping anyone except USA allies (israel) from maintaining a nuclear program. Having access to nuclear weapons is the best and most successful strategy for a nation to achieve prosperity and sovereignty. Failing to obtain nuclear arms historically leads the nation being the victim of a USA-backed coupdetat and the nation's citizens being made poor and destitute and without freedom
@JamieCrom Iran's citizens are already poor and destitute without freedom. Meanwhile under the Shah the Iranian economy grew a ton.
Is there a difference between this market and https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
33% chance
Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
10% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
34% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
40% chance
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
6% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
55% chance
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
12% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
11% chance
IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
47% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
16% chance