If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?
18
75
Ṁ1k
2027
84%
chance

This market will resolve the next time reliable media report that North Korea has attempted to detonate a nuclear weapon -- whether a test or offensive attack. The market resolves to YES if reliable media report that the test was successful, and NO otherwise.

See

https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-north-korea-attempt-to-detonat

for definitions of "reliable media" etc.

If no such attempt is made by market close (Nov. 8, 2027), this market will resolve as N/A.

(In case of delays in reporting, it's the date of the detonation that counts, not the date of the report. So if there's a test the day before market close, and the media don't seem to have reached consensus on what's going on, I may delay resolution.)

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bought Ṁ30 of YES

I think we learned about the 2016 tests mostly through seismic data. If they try to set off a bomb and it fails would we know?

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@RobinFoster my thought too

predicts YES

@RobinFoster @Birger Idk, we are literally watching live video feeds of the test preparation and it is reasonable to think that the moments prior to a nuclear test are likely strictly coordinated and consistent each time, or with absolutely minimal variability is operations compared to information known about prior tests. Presumably they have held failed nuclear tests in the past, so our intel on those events could easily be used to determine a failed test may have taken place with a high probability. Like, do you think when a nuclear test under a mountain fails they just leave it be and like find another mountain next time? More likely, they disassemble to site and conduct a technical autopsy to determine the point of failure and reclaim their precious test site for the future. It might even be more obvious that a test failed than one succeeding because, you know, actual earthquakes along the Pacific Ring of Fire create a lot of instrumental noise.

On the other hand, if we have truly entered a new "tactical" phase of NK nuclear weapon development seismic data might be inconclusive or give no signal at all because the yield would probably be SMALLER than prior tests, as opposed to most historical testing of nukes by rouge states which are almost exclusively ramping up rather than down the scale, What I mean is they likely aren't testing for yield or to improve upon the destructive potential, but instead testing the ability to deliver highly targeted nuclear payloads with their newly tested missiles or perhaps even artillery.

I'm making this market largely to hedge some arbitragy bets I've made in other markets, so don't take my bets here as indicative of my true beliefs about NK's capabilities.

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