If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed? | Manifold

If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?

21

1kṀ1436

2027

84%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market will resolve the next time reliable media report that North Korea has attempted to detonate a nuclear weapon -- whether a test or offensive attack. The market resolves to YES if reliable media report that the test was successful, and NO otherwise.

See

https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-north-korea-attempt-to-detonat

for definitions of "reliable media" etc.

If no such attempt is made by market close (Nov. 8, 2027), this market will resolve as N/A.

(In case of delays in reporting, it's the date of the detonation that counts, not the date of the report. So if there's a test the day before market close, and the media don't seem to have reached consensus on what's going on, I may delay resolution.)

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025?

If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?

Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?

Will the next North Korean nuclear weapon test be on a sunny morning?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?

Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Related questions

Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025?

If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?

Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?

Will the next North Korean nuclear weapon test be on a sunny morning?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?

Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy