Resolves positively if Apple announces that OpenAI will partner with them on Siri. The question still resolves positively even if few details are provided regarding the partnership. An official statement during the main keynote of WWDC 2024 is needed,  something like "we partnered with OpenAI to improve Siri" or "Siri will be running the latest OpenAI models" (non-exhaustive list).

Update May 19th: Some notes on specific questions in the comment section:

🍎 Apple

🤖 OpenAI

🤖 AI

📱 WWDC 2024

🖥️ Technology

🎨 Culture

If at any time before the end of May, all 3 of the following test queries do not show up with an “AI Overview” blurb for me upon testing, this question resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.

Currently, 3 for 3 pop up with an AI overview for me. I’m making this the criteria to avoid any arguments about partial rollbacks, revamps, etc.

If they rename it from AI Overview but it’s still substantially the same feature, resolves NO anyway. 

AI Safety

AI Impacts

Will resolves YES if this is confirmed by both parties, even if the exact amount is not disclosed.

Will resolve YES if they donate to a charity in her name or of her choice.

Sam Altman

Law & Order

🧑‍🎤 Celebrities

https://fortune.com/2023/08/01/can-ai-chatgpt-hallucinations-be-fixed-experts-doubt-altman-openai/

Experts are starting to doubt it, and even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is a bit stumped.

Tech experts are starting to doubt that ChatGPT and A.I. 'hallucinations' will ever go away: 'This isn’t fixable'

How true will this end up being? At the end of 2025 I will evalaute whether the hallucination problem for LLMs has been fixed or still exists. If hallucinations have been solved this market resolves 

. If the outstanding hallucination problem still exists, this market will resolve 

Technical AI Timelines

Technology

Science

The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see 

. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission.

Resolves YES, if 5 years from now, in hindsight, the consensus seems to be that the release of ChatGPT was as significant an event in signalling a coming sea change in technology and society as the release of the original iPhone.

This will be greatly aided in resolution if there's a bunch of press articles saying as much, otherwise it will be based on my own subjective opinion, aided by whatever polls I can look at and whatever evidence is provided in the comments.

'2021':7 '2023':8 'list':5 'space':1 'x':2

Nvidia (On the list in 2021, 2022 & 2023)

'2021':6 '2022':7 '2023':8 'list':4 'nvidia':1

Microsoft (On the list in 2021, 2022 & 2023)

'2021':6 '2022':7 '2023':8 'list':4 'microsoft':1

Bytedance/TikTok (On the list in 2021, 2022 & 2023)

'2021':6 '2022':7 '2023':8 'bytedance/tiktok':1 'list':4

Sweetgreens (Not found on the list before)

'2021':6 '2022':7 '2023':8 'byd':1 'list':4

Meta/Facebook (On the list in 2021 & 2022)

'2021':6 '2022':7 'list':4 'meta/facebook':1

Alphabet/Google/Deepmind (On the list in 2021, 2022, and 2023) 

'2021':6 '2022':7 '2023':9 'alphabet/google/deepmind':1 'list':4

Contemporary Amperex Technology (On the list in 2022 & 2023)

'2022':8 '2023':9 'amperex':2 'contemporari':1 'list':6 'technolog':3

'2021':6 '2022':7 '2023':8 'appl':1 'list':4

Lucid Motors (Not found on the list before)

Disney (On the list in 2021, 2022 and 2023)

'2021':6 '2022':7 '2023':9 'disney':1 'list':4

British Petroleum/BP (On the list in 2021)

'2021':7 'british':1 'list':5 'petroleum/bp':2

'2023':8 'chase':3 'jp':1 'list':6 'morgan':2

Bank of America (Not found on the list before)

Goldman Sachs (Not found on the list before)

Morgan Stanley (Not found on the list before)

'found':4 'list':7 'morgan':1 'stanley':2

Y Combinator (Not found on the list before)

Saudi Aramco (Not found on the list before)

'2023':7 'cost':1 'drug':3 'list':6 'plus':2

Microstrategy (Not found on the list before)

TIME Magazine is making their list of the 

. Applications close March 8th, and the list is expected to come out in May.

They've done this for only three years, and you can find the previous lists here:

You can submit companies you think will be on the list, and you'll get trader bonuses if other users trade on your answers. If a company is on the list it resolves Yes, if it is not it resolves No.

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

🎥 Movies

📺 Television & Film

Box-Office

Constantly feel like you have to sneeze (NO) -OR- Have hiccups for the rest of your life (YES) 

'constant':1 'feel':2 'hiccup':11 'life':17 'like':3 'rest':14 'sneez':7 'yes':18

Be surrounded by people who complain all the time (NO) -OR- Be surrounded by people who brag all the time (YES)

'brag':17 'complain':6 'peopl':4,15 'surround':2,13 'time':9,20 'yes':21

Lose your sight (NO) -OR- Lose your hearing (YES)

Keep all 10 of your fingers (NO) -OR- Lose all 10 of your fingers but get ten trillion dollars (YES)

'10':3,11 'dollar':19 'finger':6,14 'get':16 'keep':1 'lose':9 'ten':17 'trillion':18 'yes':20

Have thirst that is never fully quenched (NO) -OR- Have hunger that is never fully satiated

'fulli':6,15 'hunger':11 'never':5,14 'quench':7 'satiat':16 'thirst':2

Have the NO option be on the LEFT (NO) -OR- have the NO option be on the right (YES)

'left':8 'option':4,14 'right':18 'yes':19

Lose all your memories but keep skills (NO) -OR- Lose all your skills but keep memories (YES)

'keep':6,15 'lose':1,10 'memori':4,16 'skill':7,13 'yes':17

Eradicate all mosquito-born diseases globally, immediately (NO) -OR- Design and implement a (well-received) AI safety plan to dramatically lower x-risk (YES)

'ai':18 'born':5 'design':11 'diseas':6 'dramat':22 'erad':1 'global':7 'immedi':8 'implement':13 'lower':23 'mosquito':4 'mosquito-born':3 'plan':20 'receiv':17 'risk':26 'safeti':19 'well':16 'well-receiv':15 'x':25 'x-risk':24 'yes':27

Push someone in front of a trolley to save 5 others (NO) -OR- Be the person someone else pushes in front of the trolley to save 5 others (YES)

'5':10,27 'els':18 'front':4,21 'other':11,28 'person':16 'push':1,19 'save':9,26 'someon':2,17 'trolley':7,24 'yes':29

Be unable to speak (NO) -OR- Unable to read (YES)

That manifold NOT allow confusing puns in market titles (NO) -OR- That manifold allow confusing puns in market titles (YES)

'allow':4,14 'confus':5,15 'manifold':2,13 'market':8,18 'pun':6,16 'titl':9,19 'yes':20

Have full honour and future loyalty (NO) -OR- A higher mana balance (YES)

'balanc':12 'full':2 'futur':5 'higher':10 'honour':3 'loyalti':6 'mana':11 'yes':13

 A Keynesian beauty contest (NO) -OR- An objective market (YES)

'beauti':3 'contest':4 'keynesian':2 'market':9 'object':8 'yes':10

Age faster: mentally (NO) -OR- physically (YES)

'age':1 'faster':2 'mental':3 'physic':6 'yes':7

Everyone has an always-current history of all of the porn you've ever watched (NO) -OR- A loud buzzer goes off any time you say something not entirely truthful (YES)

'alway':5 'always-curr':4 'buzzer':21 'current':6 'entir':30 'ever':15 'everyon':1 'goe':22 'histori':7 'loud':20 'porn':12 'say':27 'someth':28 'time':25 'truth':31 've':14 'watch':16 'yes':32

Your thoughts are readable by every man you meet (NO) -OR- Every woman you meet (YES)

'everi':6,12 'man':7 'meet':9,15 'readabl':4 'thought':2 'woman':13 'yes':16

Each answer contains a dilemma: Would you rather pick the first option (NO) or the second option (YES)? Bet NO, or YES, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

If an answer has a clear majority of YES holders, that answer will resolve YES.

If an answer has a clear majority of NO holders, that answer will resolve NO.

If it's very close, and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. 

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as the market is worth running.

It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding positions are also counted. 

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has good suggestions, so please leave a comment (and ping me) if you do.

Dilemma

✖️ X (Twitter)

Manifold Chooses

Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: 

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

note: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes.

This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces

 announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile.

Donald Trump

MAGA-land

Entertainment and Pop Culture

Twitter

jskf's blocked markets

Jimmy Carter

Longevity

'boom':2 'dafuq':1 'skibidi':3 'toilet':4

'5':2 'andrew':4 'callaghan':5 'channel':1

Shorts do not count, Livestreams do not count, but uploaded videos in the main Video tab that are made from streams do count

YouTube

Video

🌐 Internet

'2.5':2 'artist':3 'join':4 'stage':7 'usher':5

Usher wearing a hat at any point of the performance

'hat':4 'perform':10 'point':7 'usher':1 'wear':2

Usher wearing sunglasses at any point of the performance

'perform':9 'point':6 'sunglass':3 'usher':1 'wear':2

Usher wears an all black outfit at any point of the performance

'black':5 'outfit':6 'perform':12 'point':9 'usher':1 'wear':2

Usher shouts out "Vegas" more than 2.5 times

'2.5':7 'shout':2 'time':8 'usher':1 'vega':4

Football used as a physical prop during show

'footbal':1 'physic':5 'prop':6 'show':8 'use':2

'accident':5 'and/or':3 'fall':4 'trip':2 'usher':1

'fan':1 'field':4 'on-field':2 'perform':6

>121 million viewers across TV and digital platforms

'121':1 'across':4 'digit':7 'million':2 'platform':8 'tv':5 'viewer':3

5 or more Usher albums in the top 50 on the US Billboard 200 chart

'200':14 '5':1 '50':9 'album':5 'billboard':13 'chart':15 'top':8 'us':12 'usher':4

Halftime show nominated for any Emmy awards

'award':7 'emmi':6 'halftim':1 'nomin':3 'show':2

Usher wears his "U" chain at any point of the performance

'chain':5 'perform':11 'point':8 'u':4 'usher':1 'wear':2

Usher bares his chest at any point of the performance

'bare':2 'chest':4 'perform':10 'point':7 'usher':1

Usher roller-skates at any point of the performance

'perform':10 'point':7 'roller':3 'roller-sk':2 'skate':4 'usher':1

Usher wears Jordan brand sneakers for show

'brand':4 'jordan':3 'show':7 'sneaker':5 'usher':1 'wear':2

Usher uses handheld mic at any point of the performance

'handheld':3 'mic':4 'perform':10 'point':7 'use':2 'usher':1

Apple Vision Pro promo at any point of the performance

'appl':1 'perform':10 'point':7 'pro':3 'promo':4 'vision':2

'a-town':5 'peac':3 'say':2 'someon':1 'town':7

'camera':5 'show':7 'shown':3 'swift':2 'taylor':1

Usher or backup dancer falls roller-skating 

'backup':3 'dancer':4 'fall':5 'roller':7 'roller-sk':6 'skate':8 'usher':1

Usher wears a headband at any point of his performance

'headband':4 'perform':10 'point':7 'usher':1 'wear':2

Usher drinks from cup or water bottle during performance

'bottl':7 'cup':4 'drink':2 'perform':9 'usher':1 'water':6

'along':6 'encourag':2 'peopl':3 'sing':5 'usher':1

Guest performer/celebrity roller skates (not backup dancer)

'backup':6 'dancer':7 'guest':1 'performer/celebrity':2 'roller':3 'skate':4

Halftime show receives over 103 FCC complaints

'103':5 'complaint':7 'fcc':6 'halftim':1 'receiv':3 'show':2

Usher wears a glove/gloves at any point of the performance

'glove/gloves':4 'perform':10 'point':7 'usher':1 'wear':2

Will make every effort to resolve each item based on available information from viewing the show, bookmakers, Wikipedia, and other sources. If there is no credible source, will resolve N/A. Some items will take longer to resolve than others.

Usher does an aerial stunt - anything that may require a safety harness, for example a suspended stage will count

Football used as a physical prop during show - must be the ball, a drone light show in the shape of a football will not count

Fans on-field during performance - a group of fans comes onto field to watch performance as opposed to only viewing from the stands

5 or more Usher albums in the top 50 on the US Billboard 200 chart - in the week after the show

Usher uses handheld mic at any point of the performance - if it is in a mic-stand or similar device, it will not count as him using a handheld mic, must be out of the stand and in his hands

Apple Vision Pro promo at any point of the performance - not really sure what to expect here, but if at any point of the show the product is worn, shown or there is an on-screen graphic for it

Over 8.5 total songs played - resolves based on Wikipedia entry for the halftime show, each song listed counts, line items and songs mixed in

Usher debuts a new song - based on this list for lead artist singles  (

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usher_discography#As_lead_artist

) latest entries for 2024 are Ruin and Kissing Strangers

Usher wears an all black outfit at any point of the performance - shirt, pants, shoes

Under 20.5 total backup dancers - for the entire show. this might resolve later after replay is available

Usher or backup dancer falls roller-skating - a trip up does not count, needs to actually have knees, or butt, or hands, etc. on the floor/ground

Usher encourages people to sing along - pointing microphone out to crowd or saying sing-a-long y'all will count

pop culture 

🎷 Music

🏟️ Sports

Entertainment

⚽ 🏈 Football

🏈 NFL

Superbowl

Will the Global surface air temperature in 2024 be higher than the record 2023?

NOAA dataset, if there is disagreement with other reliable sources, 50% will be the settlement.