UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win?
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395
แน€176k
Jul 3
39%
425+ (An overwhelming majority not seen in decades)
51%
375-424 (Labour won 412 seats in 2001, considered a landslide)
8%
325-374 (The Conservative Party has 344 currently)
1.2%
<325 (Less than a majority out of 650)

The election has been announced for July 4th, and the Labour party is expected to take power from the Conservatives. But how much will they win by?

You can find more markets about the election on the dashboard.

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@traders this is now a prize market!

Cumulative version of the market, which is I think is a lot better as a format

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I love to see the trading activity here! I'm adding a subsidy to incentivize price discovery. Enjoy the free mana if you're right, @traders !

Also, check out @AustinPlatt 's new site summing up Manifold's forecast for every seat!

He's in the comments below talking about it and he says it's open source and accepting PRs!

Given that manifold have markets for every UK constituency, it would be possible for them to total up all those markets and give their prediction for how many seats each party will win. They could do this every day.

bought แน€50 425+ (An overwhelmin... NO

@PontiMin Not really. The outcomes of each constituency are not very independent.

@thepurplebull someone could do it as a Monte Carlo simulation. E.g if a constituency has a probability of 60% Labour, 35% Tory, 5% Lib Dem, then use those probabilities in assigning that constituency to parties. Do 1000 runs and get the average number of seats won by each party. Would this provide an accurate forecast? I don't know but it would be interesting to find out.

@PontiMin I made the site here https://manifold-uk-election-2024.netlify.app/. I agree that just taking the most likely party from each constituency as I've done isn't a perfect idea idea. A monte carlo simulation seems like a better idea. I have all the requisite data for it, it'd just be a question of implementation. Hopefully I can do so during this long weekend. Otherwise, the code is open source and I would of course happily accept PRs.

But I also agree with @thepurplebull that the winner of each constituency isn't really independent of the others -- I'm not sure how you could model that in the simulation.

@AustinPlatt This is great work! I'm sending you 10k mana on the spot as a bounty, and I think there might be plenty of people who would liek to help on the manifold discord server.

I've just added the monte carlo simulation which should theoretically give more realistic results (and seat ranges for each party) https://manifold-uk-election-2024.netlify.app/

@AustinPlatt I think it would be cool if you could add the betting odds from bookies for a side by side comparison. It might fall against the purpose of the site, but would be interesting to see where the two differ the most.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/betting-markets

@Riley12 I'm going to try and get the manifold forecast added to https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/. That seems to be developing as a central place to compare different predictions. Potentially we can get some bookies data on there too.

A version of this market with more options, for arbitrage: