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nooooooo 😢

Labour on 410 with 6 seats to go :(

Reopen?

😅 prolly it was closed on purpose to save some liquidity

It’s gonn resolve to the 22% one right

We don't know yet.

Knowledge is illusory but the public credence is increasing a lot for that option today

Yh

Had Reform not had a resurgence through Farage entering, it would most certainly have been the higher seat total. If early returns are replicated, this election appears to have put the cat amongst the pigeons.

@DiscoDan not obviously true; lots of safe Tory seats will be lost because of the Reform swing

Yeah, I think Labour fell short of 425 because the Reform vote share was a few % lower nationally than the polling had it. That plus multiple seats going to Independent Gaza-focused candidates and we'd have had it :(

The Economist released its predictions this week: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/06/26/our-new-mega-poll-gives-labour-an-expected-majority-of-280-seats

Fun schedule for people planning to watch along at home.

I will have the pleasure of waking up early in Taipei to watch. Trying to work out how to mark different waypoints during the 'night'

Come bet on the Reform UK party results
https://manifold.markets/MichaelDarmousseh/how-many-seats-will-the-reform-part

this really should have been a cumulative market

425+ is now the clear favourite, but Labour is only favourite in 425 of the individual seat markets, so there are some corrections to be made here if anyone has the time or the mana!

That must've taken a while to count up! FWIW, it would be possible for them to be favourites in <425 seats while still being expected to win 425+ in total (as a result of being high second-favourites across many seats), though it does seem to be the result of a discrepancy.

I went through the Lincolnshire constituencies (for no good reason other than I looked at them earlier) and flipped a few of the markets to make them in favour of Labour:

• Grantham and Bourne

• Gainsborough

• Boston and Skegness

I also made Labour the favourite for Dumfries and Galloway (though not >50%). It's a lot of work going through them all though — would be nice if the bar colours matched the political parties when scrolling through the previews!

Oh, I'm not counting them! I'm using this excellent dashboard.

Oh nice, thanks!

Accidentally made a wrong limit order. Does anyone know if there's a way to cancel it?

Click on 'yes' or 'no' on the relevant item, and scroll down to 'your orders' and press cancel

Lmao that was simple, feel a bit stupid. But thank you!

Haha, no problem! :)