Will 2024 be even hotter than 2023? 🥵
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Dec 31
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chance

Will the Global surface air temperature in 2024 be higher than the record 2023?

NOAA dataset, if there is disagreement with other reliable sources, 50% will be the settlement.

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predicts YES

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/met-office-carbon-dioxide-forecast-on-the-limits-of-compatibility-for-achieving-1.5c The build-up of atmospheric carbon-dioxide between 2023 and 2024 is forecast to be faster than that required to track IPCC scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C, that is the finding from the latest Met Office CO₂ forecast.

Which dataset (e.g. NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth)? How are ties resolved?

predicts NO

@StevenK I‘d say NOAA is a good dataset

predicts NO

@StevenK If there is a tie, I return 50%

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Two words: El Niño

predicts NO

@Gideon37 But might have peaked in December

sold Ṁ10 of YES

Why close so early?

predicts NO

@ICRainbow Changed it

bought Ṁ5 of NO

The trend is your friend!

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