Will the Global surface air temperature in 2024 be higher than the record 2023?
NOAA dataset, if there is disagreement with other reliable sources, 50% will be the settlement.
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Estimate that it will be the warmest year is now >0.95 https://x.com/hausfath/status/1821952219463479656
@Lexer I'm with you. 2023 was an outlier. I don't follow climate change news closely, but we had a bunch of weirdness with polar vortices or something. So, without making a more detailed model I have to expect some amount of regression to the mean.
From the NOAA dataset, which is being used for resolution.
Though rolling averages are obviously increasing fast, I'm investing in NO because the likelihood of a positive YoY change is surprisingly low. Plus, 2023 represents a huge YoY spike, making a reversion to the mean in 2024 likely.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/met-office-carbon-dioxide-forecast-on-the-limits-of-compatibility-for-achieving-1.5c The build-up of atmospheric carbon-dioxide between 2023 and 2024 is forecast to be faster than that required to track IPCC scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C, that is the finding from the latest Met Office CO₂ forecast.