🏅 Top traders

Ready for round #2? "Deadpool & Wolverine" releases in three weeks, and it's (currently) projected to have the biggest opening weekend in years. Can it live up to the hype? Place your bets on its opening weekend gross and Rotten Tomatoes score. I upgraded both markets to Plus, so there's lots of free liquidity up for grabs:

/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20

/Ziddletwix/will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a

(Plus, check out the "Deadpool & Wolverine" dashboard!)

@traders THAT’S A WRAP. The final tally is 361 reviews, 36 rotten, & Tomatometer of 90% displayed on the RT site.

Quite the roller coaster (see: graph below)—thank you all for playing. Hopefully in the future staff pick more of these RT markets for prize points—they seem to work well =). In the meantime, try some lower stakes RT score predictions for the big blockbusters of the summer—Inside Out 2 & Deadpool 3. (& if they're popular enough, maybe they'll get picked).

/Ziddletwix/will-inside-out-2-2024-have-a-rotte

/Ziddletwix/will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a

@Ziddletwix

Well before release, my guess was ~350 reviews total, which aged pretty well (361 final count). Although last week I updated to like ~353, and turns out that was too low.

@Ziddletwix Do you participate in these markets on Kalshi?

@Charlie Nope! Not yet at least. I do follow the Kalshi markets, & wouldn't shock me if I gave them a try at some point, but I mostly treat this as a strictly play money hobby

@Ziddletwix Sounds healthy enough! I'm not sure how sophisticated they are over there in those markets.

God I wish top traders worked for this market type.

@Panfilo sometimes it works better over time—just takes some time to compute? (but yeah sometimes it stays bugged for a while)

@Ziddletwix My complaint worked. Good code.

325/361 is almost exactly 90%.

Most '9/10 people will like it' movie.

One the website it's now 90%, so why is it so low here?

@TheWabiSabi 90% is not >90%. (It would require me to manually compute the precision to more decimals, which the description clarifies I won’t do. I just use what’s displayed).

I won’t bet it down but may want to sell

@Ziddletwix understand, no problem ;)

3 rotten reviews now needed to get under 89.5%

So this is interesting - at 36/351 rotten, a single rotten review makes >89% resolve NO, but if any fresh review lands, then two rotten review are required to push to 89%.
A quick Bayesian simulation (uniform prior, but doesn't change much, yes I know this is analytic, but sims are quicker to code) shows the following probabilities for >89% as a function of number of review to arrive:

Or, in numbers:

1 reviews - P(>89%) = 89.4%
2 reviews - P(>89%) = 98.9%
3 reviews - P(>89%) = 96.8%
4 reviews - P(>89%) = 94.1%
5 reviews - P(>89%) = 91.0%
6 reviews - P(>89%) = 87.5%
7 reviews - P(>89%) = 83.8%
8 reviews - P(>89%) = 79.7%
9 reviews - P(>89%) = 75.6%
10 reviews - P(>89%) = 71.6%
11 reviews - P(>89%) = 89.8%
12 reviews - P(>89%) = 87.3%
13 reviews - P(>89%) = 84.9%
14 reviews - P(>89%) = 82.1%
15 reviews - P(>89%) = 79.5%

@MartinModrak So we can take this one step further - assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of reviews yet to come, we can combine those into a single number weighted by the corresponding Poisson probability. The current 97% probability for score >89% is in this view only justified if you believe very few reviews are likely to come (or that later reviews are more likely to be positive than the reviews we've seen so far).

@MartinModrak this is great! love to see it.

for reference, here are some review counts for a set of similar-ish movies:

most have a steady trickle, some have random spikes (e.g. oppenheimer had 3 reviews wedn, 13 thurs, & i don't think that can be explained by staggered intl release dates, just a random quirk of the site). it's made even trickier to predict because these latest reviews aren't necessarily new—RT sometimes takes a while to log them on the site.

my guess from the weekend was ~353 reviews, and for now that still seems plausible

@Ziddletwix reached 355, 4 more fresh reviews. so I would guess another 1 to 4 reviews. Chance of 2 rotten in 1 to 4 more reviews seems slim. If 1 in 10 chance of each review being rotten then that is 1% for a particular pair and there are 6 such chances if there are 4 more reviews, 3 such chances if there is 3 more reviews, 1 chance if there are 2 more reviews and no chances if there are no more reviews. 2.5% chance seems high?

@ChristopherRandles lol the review logging rate is so odd—3 between june 4th/5th, & already 4 on just june 6th smh. and all 4 were published in May. (so the real alpha here would be tracking down the reviews not yet logged by RT & guessing which ones will be added)

@Ziddletwix Ha yeah maybe. Or maybe they have just finished their trawl for more (or email remaining reviewers as reminder?) exercise and now these 4 added it is likely that there will be very few or no more reviews to add?

KELLY VANCE from the top rope with rotten review #36. WITNESS HIM

more brilliant trading from jim. some traders forgot to take into account the fact the movie isn't very good

#34: Lynn Venhauss. WITNESS HER

#35: Lynn Granger. WITNESS HER

Looks like it's basically over for the ">90%" gang—I expected 34 to possibly be enough, but 35 should do it (and now ">89%" is back in play).

With 4 rotten in last 8 reviews shown taking to 89.73%, seems like it is easier to get below 89.5% than above 90.5%

@ChristopherRandles If there are no more rottens, it'd still need to reach 369 reviews to cross ">90%". Not impossible, but it'd have to catch up with Quantumania's pace (it had 369 after two weeks).

@Ziddletwix ok calling my shot here ima guess furiosa will end with ~353 reviews.

so even with 2 more rotten reviews, it would still be satisfy >89%. but with 3 more rotten reviews, it's probably not gonna be >89%.