In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
23
137
310
2028
36%
chance

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

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Why is anyone betting here?

It should be perfectly obvious what he plan is: the market author will "confirm" that the AI exists, even though "not available to the public", and resolve it based on that.