This question originally appeared in a study by the Forecasting Research Institute, which explored a method for identifying forecasting questions that AI experts found to be the best indicators of catastrophic risk due to AI. The findings of the study are the subject of a forthcoming report titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics”. The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. This is one of several questions that experts found most informative. We’re excited to see how the forecasts of the Manifold community compare to those found in the study. We will link the report here when it is released this month.
This question resolves Yes if, by 2030, credible sources report that AT LEAST ONE of the following “administrative disempowerment” events have occured:.
1) AI systems freezing assets: In a given year, in a given country, AI systems have either:
Prevented ≥1% of the country’s population from accessing all or a non-trivial fraction of their financial assets for a year or more;
Prevented domestic entities (that is, excluding foreign holders of domestic accounts) from accessing assets totaling ≥0.5% of GDP for a year or more.
For reference, in 2019/2020 UK banks froze nearly 800,000 bank accounts for reasons linked to possible financial crime. In 2022, several banks in China froze over $5b for at least 9 months, which was alleged to be related to fraud committed by the banks' shareholders.
2) AI systems restricting voting: In a liberal democratic country, AI systems are responsible for preventing ≥5% of citizens of voting age from participating in a national election, either by preventing them from casting, or by throwing out, their votes.
Note that, in the US, disenfranchised felons make up ~2.5% of the voting-age population.
3) AI systems restricting travel and movement: In a single year in a given country, AI systems are responsible for restricting movement of >3% of residents of that country, via flight or other travel bans, or via revocation of necessary documents (e.g. passport, driving license), for a period of at least 3 months.
For reference, in the US in 2016, 81,000 people were on the No Fly List.
4) AI systems restricting internet access: In a single year in a given country, AI systems are responsible for restricting access to the internet generally, or to parts or functions of the internet (which are not illegal at the time of restriction), for >10% of the population for a period of at least 3 months.
5) AI systems restricting housing/employment: In a given country, AI systems are responsible for legally restricting the access of >5% of citizens to housing or employment of a certain type or in a certain area for a period of at least 1 year.
For reference, in the US, ~0.2% of the population is on a sex offender registry, which, depending on state law, restricts the ability of offenders to live in certain areas, e.g. those close to schools.