By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?
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2033
25%
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If it is revealed that an artificial intelligence was elected to public office, this market solves to YES. I will rely on evidence from the major news outlets. If an AI elected but the public doesn't know, the market nonetheless solves to YES (e.g: the face is just someone that speakes whatever the AI tells him to say)

I won't bet on this market and I will hold a low bar for what it would mean, but nonetheless relying in the mainstream media.

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It's happening!

https://folha.com/6scvnizm
The city council of Porto Alegre in Brazil just passed a bill that was written by ChatGPT

predicts NO

I feel like you could already do this by promising to paste proposed bills into ChatGPT and asking it to evaluate. That said, the bills may be longer than it's maximum preamble + prompt length..

Also, LLM's give you what you ask for so you can easily prompt it to align with a political view (subject to the debiasing training)

What about if the 'face' is open about the fact that their plan is to consult (and faithfully relay) the AI on every issue, and gets elected on that basis?

@AngolaMaldives I would solve as YES

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