Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Question

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/

Expected to resolve around Dec 31, 2049. Closes 5 years prior.

Close date updated to 2049-12-30 11:59 pm

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (93 traders, as of Mar 13, 2026).