Will a major war break out in 2025?

110

1kṀ19k

2026

40%

chance

ALL

Market resolves YES if at the beginning of 2026, a new entry has been added to the "major wars" category of the Wikipedia list of ongoing armed conflicts.

This does not need to be an entirely new war. If a war that is already part of the overall list escalates to be included in the "major wars" category, the market resolves as YES. Similarly, if an already ongoing war were to be split into two different conflicts which are then included in the list.

tl;dr: The only criteria for this market to resolve yes is whether a conflict joins the "major wars" category that is not currently listed there.

The market will be resolved once all numbers for 2025 are in (this generally means once ACLED pushes their final update for the year).

Current list:

Politics

World

Wars

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Some guidance for traders:

Over the last 11 years, at least one new major war has been added to the list in 7 of them. In the past 4 years, at least one new major war has been added during each of them.

2024: 1

2023: 3
2022: 2

2021: 1

2020: 0

2019: 0

2018: 1

2017: 0

2016: 1

2015: 0

2014: 1

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filled a Ṁ100 YES at 63% order

Edit: nevermind, didn't read description

Does it have to stay on the Wikipedia list for at least e.g. 24 hours?

@ArmandodiMatteo once the acled numbers are out they generally stop updating the list for that year

As written, someone can game this by editing wikipedia

@eyesprout that would be extremely obvious and quickly reverted

bought Ṁ50 NO

Thesis for NO:

Hybrid low level warfare, terrorising civilians and frozen conflicts work just as well and are cheaper. So there are lots of alternatives for major war.

@uair01 Yes: DR Congo

2024: 1

2023: 3
2022: 2

2021: 1

2020: 0

2019: 0

2018: 1

2017: 0

2016: 1

2015: 0

2014: 1

@Symmetry I would like to ask a clarifying question:

When, for example, the 2024 Iran Israeli conflict was added to the 1948 Arab Israeli conflict, did that count?

The 2023 Sudanese civil war has now been folded into the 2008 Sudanese conflicts, so is the 2008 entry "new", or is it attached to the preexisting 2023 major war?

@JoshuaWilkes That seems to me as if it would only become a problem if a conflict is merged into a conflict that has already been a major conflict, and even then not really. The resolution is agnostic towards whether a conflict is truly "novel" or if it is one that has been going on for some time but is now escalating. Does that answer the question?