
Will a major war break out in 2025?
105
1kṀ18k2026
33%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market resolves YES if at the beginning of 2026, a new entry has been added to the "major wars" category of the Wikipedia list of ongoing armed conflicts.
This does not need to be an entirely new war. If a war that is already part of the overall list escalates to be included in the "major wars" category, the market resolves as YES. Similarly, if an already ongoing war were to be split into two different conflicts which are then included in the list.
tl;dr: The only criteria for this market to resolve yes is whether a conflict joins the "major wars" category that is not currently listed there.
The market will be resolved once all numbers for 2025 are in (this generally means once ACLED pushes their final update for the year).
Current list:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
44% chance
Will the US and China be at war with each other before the end of 2025?
9% chance
Which countries will the United States be at war with by the end of 2025?
Will India and Pakistan go to war in 2025?
8% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
35% chance
Will the USA fight a major land war by 2035?
43% chance