Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?
55
408
1.2K
2049
30%
chance
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/ Expected to resolve around Dec 31, 2049. Closes 5 years prior. Close date updated to 2049-12-30 11:59 pm
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The psychology of European elites leading into World War I is almost unimaginable to Americans, even those that supported (for example) the Iraq war. Simplifying dramatically, World War II was significantly related to World War I.

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think that 1v1 India versus China would qualify, and judging by the Ukraine war, I don’t for see a bunch of other countries, eagerly, jumping in the way that they did to start World War I.

So nothing is certain, but I think this is even less likely than 26%

@MatthewRitter The July Crisis does seem like an unforced error that Germany did not help because of utterly bizarre ideas about "the Germanic peoples will fight the Slavic peoples eventually" and our growing understanding and concern for human rights in warfare since WW2. It just couldn't happen again and wasn't particularly likely to happen even then.

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2050, both of these conditions are true:

  1. There is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.

  2. At least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.


bought Ṁ20 of YES
WWIII doesn't have to involve nuclear annihilation.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
as in case of WW III my points here will be irrelevant anyway also, 23% is too high