Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be property damage reported by the media?

US Politics•Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•Culture•Trump•World•Republican Party•Law & Order

136

400

Ṁ57K

Ṁ2K

resolved May 1

Resolved

ALL

Mainstream media only. They would include NPR, New York Post, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, The Times, BBC, The Guardian etc.
We will go by mainstream consensus on whether the protests caused property damage. Just 1 outlet reporting would not suffice.

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26 Comments

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329 Trades

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bought Ṁ300 of NO

When will this resolve? I think enough time has elapsed and i havent seen anything about property damage in relation to any protests regarding trump.

predicted NO

@AlfredENewman Closing date is 4/30 as you can see.

bought Ṁ400 of NO

@johnleoks oh ok

predicted NO

The previous close date for this market was the end of March, but now it's been changed to the end of April. (Boo, shifting goalposts)

What exactly are the resolution conditions for this market?

predicted NO

@LukasDay Of course the close date is moved. The entire market hinges on there being protests against Trump's arrest, which is yet to happen.

predicted NO

@johnleoks - So for clarification, the market specifies protests of Trumps imminent arrests which seems to imply the question is about property damage from protests BEFORE Trump's arrest.

What about property damage that occur from protests that occur AFTER Trump's arrest? Would those protests be excluded from this market's consideration? Arguably they're no longer protests against Trump's imminent arrest - the arrest would have already happened.

predicted NO

@LukasDay The spirit of the market is:

Trump gets arrested > Protests happen (or not) > See if there are property damages

predicted NO

@johnleoks I’m still confused. Is there a timeframe between each step beyond which this resolves NO? Does this restart if he gets arrested again?

predicted NO

@Tyler31 Now we wait to see if there are any protests, if not I'll resolve No.

Googling "trump arrest protests property damage" brings up nothing contemporary for me.

bought Ṁ463 of NO

It only counts if it happens before April, correct?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

it's going to be a dud Pro-Trump protesters claim low turnout 'by design' - POLITICO

bought Ṁ100 of NO

New York City braces for Trump indictment after ex-president urges protests | Reuters

Trump's supporters, in distress,
Will they make their protest mess?
The prediction market says it's true,
Sadly, vandalism's not anything new.

predicted YES

It will be hilarious if trump only pretends to be arrested.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

If there's no arrest, is this N/A?

predicted YES

@FedorBeets it has to be

sold Ṁ51 of NO

@FedorBeets no. "Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest." That is describing the situation. It isn't a condition that needs to be met for this market.

predicted YES

@FedorBeets No. If there is no protest, then there is no property damage, which means the market would resolve NO.

predicted YES

@johnleoks leftists will protest if he isn't arrested

bought Ṁ80 of NO

@MarkIngraham What is the arrest going to look like? Do you guys think trump will be vibing in the holding cell with his secret service detail?

I don’t know how they will manage it but I doubt it’ll be protest worthy. I don’t even expect a good photo op

predicted NO

@MarkIngraham leftoids standback and standby.. also rightoids... standback and standby...

deescalated. EZ

predicted YES

@Gen trump is a boomer but something will happen

predicted NO

@MarkIngraham They can’t risk him actually being harmed or even being remotely unsafe, as the country is bound to protect him for life. Dude will be no more of a prisoner than he already is - constantly surrounded by guards, except they might actually have to keep an eye on him as well