Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?
45
1kṀ6454
2029
80%
chance

Original post: "major" protests defined as over 1 million people in one city OR over 10 million people in various cities/locations within the U.S., in the same day. Needs to be at least one reliable estimate reaching that threshold to validate (if there are conflicting reports, will resolve if one independent news source, police force, agency, etc cites numbers that qualify). Any protests related to Trump, his administration (including Musk or similar) or his policies would count (e.g. a Women's rights march or a march to stand up for the poor inspired by cuts to funding would count). A protest in response to a general SCOTUS decision would not count (e.g. overturning Roe), unless the SCOTUS decision was about Trump or a Trump policy (e.g. allowing Trump to run for a third term or upholding a controversial Trump policy that he would then get to enact). Poll will close when such a protest happens or a new president is in office.

UPDATE 4/5/25 - I'm not sure how many are digging into the resolution criteria, but this is intended to get at massive, historic level protests, so I am revising the title to be more clear. I am not changing the resolution criteria, as a number of people have already bet. I am just trying to make the question more clear for those who don't pour over the criteria. It would not have been a very interesting question as to whether there would be protests in his second term, as that seems quite obvious. What this has been getting at if we would see massive, historic level protests. For comparison, the following are protests/demonstrations that likely met the criteria (I didnt dig into source reliability for these estimates, but these have some cited estimates listed that meet it): March for Our Lives 2018, March for Women's Lives 2004, March for Lesbian, Gay and Biequal Rights 1993, Anti Nuclear March 1982, Earth Day 1970. Also for reference, it would be about twice the numbers that showed up in D.C. and those that protested nationally for the Women's March in 2017 .

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Trump's Second Term
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filled a Ṁ250 YES at 80% order

Does anyone have numbers from today?

@NeoMalthusian "thousands" https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-doge-protests-hands-off-472c574303260cbac315367cc808960d

@NeoMalthusian organizers are estimating 3 million. https://www.instagram.com/p/DIFXYg8uQoR/?igsh=cm92NXFtaWxvcjR1 A lot, but not the numbers needed. Will be posting an update soon

Kat Duesterhaus on Instagram: "Today, over 3 million people across the country stood up to say HANDS OFF our democracy. We are building a massive, visible, national rejection of this crisis—and today’s numbers are proof that the people—the majority—are taking action to stop a hostile government takeover. Because let’s be clear: We do not have a functioning democracy anymore. 
Trump and his billionaire allies have dismantled our system of checks and balances, stacked the courts, silenced dissent, and declared themselves above the law. They are disappearing people, attacking universities and the free press, and purging agencies meant to protect the people—from the environment to civil rights to public health. This is not politics as usual. 
This is a hostile takeover by billionaires, corporations, and authoritarian enablers. They are gutting the country for parts—and selling us out in the process. They are not leaders. They are traitors to the people of this country. So we are building a People’s Movement. 
And history shows that when just 3.5% of the population engages in sustained, peaceful resistance—transformative change is inevitable. But we have to earn it. 
And we have to fight for it. We may no longer have a functioning democracy—but we still have a chance to restore it. 
The window is closing though. And we are the ones who must rise to meet this moment. So here’s what you can do: 📱 Use the 5 Calls app or Resist Bot to contact your elected officials—every single day. 🎤 Demand town halls. Show up at their public appearances. 🚫 Boycott the corporations funding this hostile takeover. 🗣️ Talk to your friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors. Don’t let them sleep through this moment. 📸 Share protest footage, updates, and facts on social media. Amplify the truth—because the billionaires are trying to drown it out. 📲 And follow @50501movement to stay connected, get updates, and join future actions. We are not alone. We are not powerless. And we are not backing down. #50501movement #PeoplesMovement #FiftyFiftyOne #50501 #ImpeachTrump #HandsOff #April5"
7,867 likes, 104 comments - thekattalk on April 5, 2025: "Today, over 3 million people across the country stood up to say HANDS OFF our democracy. We are building a massive, visible, national rejection of this crisis—and today’s numbers are proof that the people—the majority—are taking action to stop a hostile government takeover. Because let’s be clear: We do not have a functioning democracy anymore. 
Trump and his billionaire allies have dismantled our system of checks and balances, stacked the courts, silenced dissent, and declared themselves above the law. They are disappearing people, attacking universities and the free press, and purging agencies meant to protect the people—from the environment to civil rights to public health. This is not politics as usual. 
This is a hostile takeover by billionaires, corporations, and authoritarian enablers. They are gutting the country for parts—and selling us out in the process. They are not leaders. They are traitors to the people of this country. So we are building a People’s Movement. 
And history shows that when just 3.5% of the population engages in sustained, peaceful resistance—transformative change is inevitable. But we have to earn it. 
And we have to fight for it. We may no longer have a functioning democracy—but we still have a chance to restore it. 
The window is closing though. And we are the ones who must rise to meet this moment. So here’s what you can do: 📱 Use the 5 Calls app or Resist Bot to contact your elected officials—every single day. 🎤 Demand town halls. Show up at their public appearances. 🚫 Boycott the corporations funding this hostile takeover. 🗣️ Talk to your friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors. Don’t let them sleep through this moment. 📸 Share protest footage, updates, and facts on social media. Amplify the truth—because the billionaires are trying to drown it out. 📲 And follow @50501movement to stay connected, get updates, and join future actions. We are not alone. We are not powerless. And we are not backing down. #50501movement #PeoplesMovement #FiftyFiftyOne #50501 #ImpeachTrump #HandsOff #April5".
opened a Ṁ250 NO at 75% order

@JRR Description says "at least one reliable estimate". Will you count organizers as reliable? Washington Post says tens of thousands in DC: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/04/05/hands-off-protest-trump-washington/

@CraigDemel the organizers are talking nationally, not just DC, which was certainly more in the tens of thousands range. Their estimate is moot here, since it didn't reach the criteria either way; just citing to give an approximate for purposes of comparison and consideration for what level of protest would resolve this.

@JRR But would you resolve based on an organizer claiming 10 million?

@CraigDemel ideally not. I would not really consider it to be reliable and would hope there is at least one reliable independent source with an estimate. If there were any reliable independent estimates at all, I would use those over any organizer number. If there were truly no sources that made an estimate at all though, I may have to make a judgment call, as not really fair to not resolve it just because no one makes an estimate.

Do economic boycotts count, if they have major participation, or does it have to be people physically turning up in person?

@WilliamGunn physical protests.

Aren't you underdefining the market a bit in the title? Has there ever been a protest authoritavely considered to have more than one million participants?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen there have been some protests that would meet one or the other of the criteria. I am asking about protest on the level of the biggest we've ever seen: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_and_demonstrations_in_the_United_States_by_size I guess I see your argument about being stronger in title. Any suggestions? Would "massive" or "historic" or "historic" be better?

@JRR thanks. Didn't find that list. It lacks relevant category tags. I will add those if I still know how.

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