If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?

If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves Yes if, in any single incident before the end of 2026, more than 2 protestors or rioters die in public clashes with the authorities in the District of Columbia. Otherwise resolves No at the end of 2026.

Authorities include police, national guard, or military, or any uniformed group that present themselves as responsible for maintaining law and order (or controlling protests/riots, etc), and are not contradicted in this by the administration.

Must be reported in at least 2 major media outlets: CNN, Fox, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, The Guardian, the AP, or similar.

This is intended to cover deaths during protests, riots, arrests, or other public confrontations, or from injuries sustained during those confrontations; not subsequent deaths while in custody. I'll use my judgment about what constitutes a single incident -- a weekend of related protests is one incident; a summer of protests is not. I will not trade in this market.


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What if, during violent clashes with police, two of the protestors die from heart attacks. Would that count for the purposes of this market?

@EMcNeill Good question! First of all, note that the description says "more than 2".

If 3 people had heart attacks and died, I think I'd resolve that as "yes". Dying is a pretty unusual outcome -- if 3 people die in one incident, it's probably not a pure coincidence. (And if it was pure coincidence, well, that's the way predictions go sometimes.)

@PeterF I don't want to put myself in the situation of deciding what the causal factors were in each death.

Note though that the deaths have to occur during confrontations with authorities. (Or from injuries sustained in those confrontations.) If people are peacefully protesting during the day, and then at night the cops start tear gassing the crowds, a heart attack during the daytime peaceful period doesn't count. (I'll have a low bar for what counts as "confrontation" though.)

You say "not subsequent deaths while in custody". What about deaths in custody that are due to injuries incurred during? Or rather, that are alleged to be due to such injuries, or partially due to them.

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