Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?
9
93
230
2026
39%
chance

In November 2023, the Washington Post reported:

"Donald Trump and his allies have begun mapping out specific plans for using the federal government to punish critics and opponents should he win a second term, with the former president naming individuals he wants to investigate or prosecute and his associates drafting plans to potentially invoke the Insurrection Act on his first day in office to allow him to deploy the military against civil demonstrations." (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/)

This market resolves YES if, during 2025, Donald Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to use the American military to forcibly suppress protests. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If the Insurrection Act is invoked only for a reason unrelated to protesting Trump's presidency (eg. in response to a military attack by China), it resolves NO.

The Insurrection Act has been invoked 13 times in the last century, most recently in 1992 during the Rodney King riots (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807). The Trump administration discussed using it during the protests of 2020, but did not officially do so.

If Donald Trump does not serve as President during 2025, this market resolves N/A.

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Which events are required to resolve Yes?

  • Trump says he invoked it

  • An official order

  • Media reports saying he invoked it

  • Troops present at protests

  • Troops taking actions to "forcibly suppress" protests

I like the "will Trump actually be a dictator" theme, would definitely like to see more!

You could also structure it as "Will Trump be more of a dictator than someone else" by having a "will the thing happen (unconditional)" market and a second for "will that market resolve the same way as the Trump winning market". A bit more complicated though, and the UI/UX isn't as good, so might not be worth it.

@EvanDaniel Trump must actually invoke it, which is a formally defined legal action. If he says he will but never actually does, this market resolves NO. The Wikipedia article keeps a comprehensive list of invocations, going back to the Act's original passing in 1807 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807).