Will Donald Trump arrest his political opponents?
42
422
1k
2026
21%
chance

Numerous media sources have reported that, if elected in 2024, Donald Trump plans to arrest his political opponents (eg. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/30/trump-interview-jail-political-opponents-glenn-beck)

Gen. Mark Milley, who served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump, has said:

"Milley has told friends that he expects that if Trump returns to the White House, the newly elected president will come after him. “He’ll start throwing people in jail, and I’d be on the top of the list,” he has said." (https://archive.is/eXrmE)

This market resolves YES if, during 2025, a Trump administration files at least three cases against prominent opponents for political reasons. Each case must:

  • Charge his opponents with federal crimes, which have imprisonment as a potential penalty.

  • Have defendants which are prominent opponents of Trump, as defined by having a Wikipedia article prior to the case against them being charged. Eg., arresting low-profile Mexican-Americans for immigration violations would not count.

  • Have a clearly political motivation, as defined by the consensus of reliable sources on Wikipedia.

At least three separate cases are required. If three defendants are charged, but there is only a single indictment (eg. for conspiracy), this market resolves NO.

Otherwise, this market resolves NO. If Donald Trump does not serve as President in 2025, this market resolves N/A.

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"Have a clearly political motivation, as defined by the consensus of reliable sources on Wikipedia."

How clear must the consensus be? How would you expect this to be worded? It seems like the sort of thing that will always be politically controversial even if there are many people saying it.

A similar, but much more specific, market is https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/if-trump-is-elected-in-2024-will-jo. So I think they could be arbitraged so that this one is strictly higher.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

What is "the trump administration" in this context? Federal prosecutors?

predicts YES

@MilfordHammerschmidt Yes, federal prosecutors and other federal law enforcement (who report to the President).